1. Technical Analysis (Daily & 1-Hour Timeframes)
Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe):
* Trend: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is breaking down from its rising channel, signaling weakness.
* Resistance:
* 240: Previous support turned resistance.
* 244.98: The upper supply zone where sellers may step in.
* Support:
* 233: Immediate key support where buyers may attempt to hold.
* 214: Stronger support from prior price action.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover confirms downward momentum.
* Volume: Elevated selling pressure in the last few sessions.
1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe):
* Trend: Price is in a short-term descending channel, testing support near 233–232.
* Resistance:
* 235.95: Closest resistance on the 1-hour chart.
* Support:
* 231.88: The next key level of support aligned with recent lows.
* MACD: Slight signs of recovery but remains bearish overall.
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2. GEX Analysis
Key GEX Levels:
* CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 235: 2nd CALL Wall, presenting overhead resistance.
* 237: Highest resistance level from GEX and likely area of rejection.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* 233: Current area showing significant PUT support, aligning with technical levels.
* 231: Highest negative GEX level, acting as a major support zone.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR: 19.1% – Elevated volatility, making options slightly more expensive.
* PUTs: 86.08% activity signals strong bearish sentiment in options flow.
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3. Trade Setups
Bearish (Short Bias):
* Entry: Near rejection at 235–237 resistance.
* Target:
* 233 PUT support as the first target.
* 231 negative GEX as the extended target.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (strike 233, expiry 1 week out).
* Consider a Bear Put Spread: Buy 234 PUT, Sell 231 PUT to lower cost.
Bullish (Rebound Play):
* Entry: If IWM holds above 233 PUT support with bullish volume confirmation.
* Target:
* 235: Closest resistance target.
* 237 CALL Wall as an extended target.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options (strike 233, short-term expiry).
* Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 232 CALL, Sell 235 CALL to minimize risk.
Directional Bias for This Week
* Bearish unless IWM can reclaim 235 resistance. The current price action and heavy PUT positioning signal downside risk toward 231 PUT Wall support.
* Watch for potential bounce opportunities at 233, but the trend favors further weakness.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Daily Chart (Longer Timeframe):
* Trend: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is breaking down from its rising channel, signaling weakness.
* Resistance:
* 240: Previous support turned resistance.
* 244.98: The upper supply zone where sellers may step in.
* Support:
* 233: Immediate key support where buyers may attempt to hold.
* 214: Stronger support from prior price action.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover confirms downward momentum.
* Volume: Elevated selling pressure in the last few sessions.
1-Hour Chart (Shorter Timeframe):
* Trend: Price is in a short-term descending channel, testing support near 233–232.
* Resistance:
* 235.95: Closest resistance on the 1-hour chart.
* Support:
* 231.88: The next key level of support aligned with recent lows.
* MACD: Slight signs of recovery but remains bearish overall.
--------------------------
2. GEX Analysis
Key GEX Levels:
* CALL Walls (Resistance):
* 235: 2nd CALL Wall, presenting overhead resistance.
* 237: Highest resistance level from GEX and likely area of rejection.
* PUT Walls (Support):
* 233: Current area showing significant PUT support, aligning with technical levels.
* 231: Highest negative GEX level, acting as a major support zone.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR: 19.1% – Elevated volatility, making options slightly more expensive.
* PUTs: 86.08% activity signals strong bearish sentiment in options flow.
-------------------------
3. Trade Setups
Bearish (Short Bias):
* Entry: Near rejection at 235–237 resistance.
* Target:
* 233 PUT support as the first target.
* 231 negative GEX as the extended target.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy PUT options (strike 233, expiry 1 week out).
* Consider a Bear Put Spread: Buy 234 PUT, Sell 231 PUT to lower cost.
Bullish (Rebound Play):
* Entry: If IWM holds above 233 PUT support with bullish volume confirmation.
* Target:
* 235: Closest resistance target.
* 237 CALL Wall as an extended target.
* Option Strategy:
* Buy CALL options (strike 233, short-term expiry).
* Use a Bull Call Spread: Buy 232 CALL, Sell 235 CALL to minimize risk.
Directional Bias for This Week
* Bearish unless IWM can reclaim 235 resistance. The current price action and heavy PUT positioning signal downside risk toward 231 PUT Wall support.
* Watch for potential bounce opportunities at 233, but the trend favors further weakness.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.