Where is Nasdaq heading? support line where, resistance where?
Take noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current Nasdaq Composite price is 13211.81 as of 25 September 2023.
The Nasdaq have potential to drop to 12022.08 to 12000 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 14189.43 to about 12022.08 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 14189.43. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 15466.76.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 12022.08 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 12022.08 and head lower to a stronger support at 10604.35. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
10604.35 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of Nasdaq composite. I would only start buying a little at 12022.08 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. If by the time Nasdaq reach 12022.08 and the S&P have no reach 3900. The Nasdaq composite might go lower following the S&P 500.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
The Current Nasdaq Composite price is 13211.81 as of 25 September 2023.
The Nasdaq have potential to drop to 12022.08 to 12000 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 14189.43 to about 12022.08 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 14189.43. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 15466.76.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 12022.08 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 12022.08 and head lower to a stronger support at 10604.35. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
10604.35 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of Nasdaq composite. I would only start buying a little at 12022.08 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. If by the time Nasdaq reach 12022.08 and the S&P have no reach 3900. The Nasdaq composite might go lower following the S&P 500.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
Note
US Fed's FOMC 1st November 2023 was a good news and the price from the previous post of September 25, 2023 Nasdaq price was 13211.81 and fall lower due to the strong headwind of higher rates for longer from the Feds.The low was made on 26 October 2023 at 12595.61, a bit higher from than the projected of 12022.08. I have about 95% accuracy in the previous market low projection.
Note
Since that the 1st November 2023 Fed's FOMC was good news with pause, the Nasdaq market when up to test the projected level at 14189.43.Current Nasdaq indices is at 14305.03 and testing this 1-day resistance level. Trader should wait for 2 to 3 weeks' time to see the price action and wait for the following 3 news outcome.
1) November 2023 Jobs report
2) November 2023 CPI report
3) December 2023 Fed's FOMC outcome report and Q&A session indications.
Most likely all 3 will be good news can will cause a potential breakout if Fed's announces that there is not more rates hike this year and next year. A pause in hike will cause the market to rally further.
The 1-day resistance 14189.43 or 14305.03 is not likely the peak for coming 1 month's time. Most likely will breach and breakout to higher level.
The next resistance is at 15,430, the 4 hour resistance level which is a weaker dynamic resistance level than 14,189.43. Most like will breach and also breakout from this level.
The most possible level for Nasdaq for the next 6 months is 16,831.21 of good news on Fed's FOMC on 13 December 2023.
Note
If there is a breakout from the 1-day resistance level for about 1.13% and above. To be safe about 1.5% to 2%, there could be a potential indices number of 22898.90 to be reach in 2 years time or slightly more. The time projection will most likely not be in 90% accuracy.But there is a need for no strong headwind for the USA financial market for next 2 years. Potential confounding variable no seen in next 2 years.
Currently at this point in time not sure 22898.90 will happen. Will update after next 6 months time.
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The current price for Nasdaq Composite is at 14403.97 as of 8th December 2023 and is testing the 1-day chart resistance level at 14305.03 as per previous projection on 4th December 2023. The projection was correct of breaching this level.If good news on the coming week USA CPI and Fed's FOMC meeting then even no breakout the index will most likely reach the next resistance level of 4 hours chart around 15430.00 projected previously.
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The current index of Nasdaq 16091.92 clearly breaches the level of 15430 as previously suggested. The next 1-week resistance level at 17100.81. If no strong headwind appears in the US equity market, Nasdaq can reach this level within Q1 or Q2 2024.
Strong buy on Nasdaq shares. BUY during the pullback. Buy the dip.
BUY!BUY! and BUY!
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16388.24 this is the current level of Nasdaq still have not retest the 16538.86 the all-time high.If good news for today PPI, then CPI tomorrow the market will retest the all-time high and most likely breach this level of 16538.86.
Market will have mixture of good and bad news for CPI, PPI, PCI, ECI and Fed's FOMC.
Buy the dip.
When is the dip?
Currently the CME Fed watch tool indicate a September 2024 rate cuts, if it stays that way until end July Fed's FOMC, where FOMC confirm most likely a rate cut happening on the September 2024 meeting, this will be the bottom of the market.
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Good news in the PPI and CPI for April 2024 read reported in May 14 and 15. Causing the Nasdaq to rally much further breach out from all time high 16538.86 as suggested by previous post that it will reach another all-time high if good news.May 29, 2024 today and the price now before market open is at 17019.88. If this month PCE and next month CPI and PPI if good news and nice number. Then the Nasdaq will continue to make all time high every day or so.
Buy the dip as suggested by March 01, 2024 call previously.
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Yesterday a good CPI reads but a slightly hawkish Fed's FOMC since Fed's indicate only 1 rate cut this year as suggested 2 cuts by the CME group Fed's watch tool. Today the future might be in green before trading but most likely after lunch time the Nasdaq future might be in the reds due to pricing in of 1 rate cuts this years.Need also to watch the before trading PPI data today. if data is bad then today the price will be in the red. If good then most likely a up day for Nasdaq.
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on May 14, 2024, I suggested to buy the dip or buy into Nasdaq. The price then was 16511.18. Today the price for Nasdaq on 13 July 2024 is 18398.45. Even the strong headwind exists on May 29, 2024, the Nasdaq continue to go uptrend with the strong tailwind of AI boom with Nvidia.The market is currently sniffing out of the strong headwind 1 cut by the fed's, turning into 2 to 3 cuts this year and another 2 to 4 cut on next year 2025. The strong headwind of 1 cut might turn into strong tailwind of 2 cut during July 31, 2024 Fed's FOMC meeting.
Hence, the market will continue to go uptrend from here. However, if the economic data on the macro perspective is bad, then you will get a correction to 16,336.40 a weak support level. Most likely if there is a correction the price might go down to 16558.61.
I will be a buyer at 16336.4 level for big caps and some small caps.
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If the coming core PCE number on July 26, 2024 is 2.5 or lower. Then you would properly get or most likely get a Fed's FOMC that say 2 rate cuts in 2024. The first will be on July 31, 2024.The market for Nasdaq composite might or most likely end up around 21632.89 on the index, roughly 20k to 21k for the end of the year if all the macro-economic data and Fed's are good number and good news.
If all is good news from now to end of the year 21k is possible.
I am buying the dip now for Nasdaq companies especially AI tech stocks.
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There is a possible scenario that the market is going into a long overdue correction in price. The correction most likely will continue into next week until PCE release date on July 26, 2024. The market might continue to correct even after the good news from the PCE. Have to wait and see first how the market will react.
The reason for correction:
1) long overdue 1 rate cut this year by the Fed's strong headwind.
2) President Donald Trump comment of chip export to China.
The market correction may or may not reach 16558.61 as suggested by previous post on July 13, 2024. That depends if there is additional strong headwinds coming into play and the remaining effect of Sentiment shift from Trump chip export comment.
I stop buying into AI Tech stock currently and wait for the index to do it's correction.
I will be a buyer at 16558.61 level. because there is the following strong tailwind in play.
1) Fed's FOMC hinting of rate cut cycle in this year.
2) Market sniffing out the potential one rate cut turning into 2 to 3 Fed's rate cut
this year.
3) Continue of good Macro economic data CPI, PPI, PCE and GDP.
4) US labor market back to the level before the pandemic. Still strong and health
after 1.5 years of very restrictive rate.
Buy the dip.
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if the Nasdaq reach the 16558.61 level for the correction and S&P 500 have not reach 5162.46. Nasdaq could, just could fall further from this level until S&P 500 reach 5162.46 or at 5000 level.There is a possibility that the market has start some panicking over the potential of a recession or even worst stagflation that start on 01 August 2024. If the overall market continues to believe a recession and stagflation is coming, the price will fall even further. These are just market consensus. Might be very hard to gauge when it stops.
The current strong headwind in the making is USA will be in a recession. Not sure how long this strong headwind will last. If it continue then defer your purchases into Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, S&P 500 and even cryptocurrency.
The numbers for the correction above from previous post are just number from the potential support level. If the strong headwind continues, this level will not stop the price decline in the market.
I still think that the current moment is a panic sell. The GDP for Q2 is at 2.7% on the first read and the Q3 read currently is still at 2% above tracking. The unemployment has tick higher to 4.3 from 4.1. Above 6 is recession. The market is no where near a recession. Hence, this price action shows that the market now is very sensitive in any incoming data. A slightly bad here and there will prompt a selloff.
A coming bad CPI and PPI will definitely cause another sell off to lower level. Since some area of the consumer show weaking or weaking in the macro economy but these people did not put a gauge from how strong the economy was back then and what is the current level now from the recession level. They just say weaken but it is near a recession for such conditions?
The moto in last post was buy the dip. Now is more likely to buy the bottom.
I will not sell my share even it drops to USD1 currently since I only invested a small amount so far. I still have plenty of dry powder or liquidity in the bank. The one 1 buy was only 10% of the amount I can invest in the equity market.
I buy the bottom or the dip. Happy hunting for a lower price of entry.
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If next Monday, CPI is a good number the Nasdaq most likely will rally further. If the number is sticky and bad. The market will experience a sell off again most likely like this week Monday.
Not buying in at this level for Nasdaq at 16745.30 since the S&P 500 is at 5344.15. If the S&P 500 retest the low again and head lower to 4600 level then only I most likely to buy stocks.
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There is a chance for USA to have a recession. How much is this chance I can't tell yet. This month CPI is good then the chance for recession is slimmer. Trade active
Nasdaq has recovered some of the losses on last Monday. Currently at 17475.41 from the bottom around 16200.08 on August 5, 2024.
Due to the better macro data on the jobless claim at 227,000 versus 235,000 estimate and a better CPI and PPI read few days ago. The market fear for a recession has ended for the mean time.
The CME Fed's watch tool of rate cut of 50 basis point in September chances has reduce to 25 basis point currently. This is good news to indicate that the Fed's is not far behind the curve in fighting inflation.
All clear for some uptrend to test the all-time high of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 until the Nvidia earning report on 28 August 2024 and the USA PCE number on 30 August 2024. However, there might be some day the index is in the reds.
I would just stay put with my current investment and buy the bottom when there is a recession. There is still a possibility of a soft-landing scenario.
I can't tell from the macro indicator currently if there will be a recession coming for the USA this year or next years.
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USA Nasdaq September and October month is a seasonality month for correction due to holidays by hedge funds managers. Nasdaq indice will drop and is currently dropping today even the jobs report was overall good with 4.2 down from 4.3 last month.
The current correction has reach near the 4-hour chart support at 16641.16. This level most likely will not hold and the price action will breach downward to next level at 15423.16 a 1-day chart support level. The reason for Nasdaq to go lower than 16641.16 is because today intraday the composite is at 16741.21 and the S&P 500 have not reached 5309.97. The S&P 500 as of September 6, 2024 for intraday price is at 5415.19.
Since this is the start of September 2024. The price action for the entire month will be bad downtrend. Most likely the bottom will be around 13156.02.
When is the bottom I assume around October 2024 second or fourth week but my projection for when it happens is very inaccurate based on past results.
I will only be buying some when the Nasdaq reach near 15423.16 and keep the remaining dry powder for the 13156.02 level.
Keep some dry powder and buy the dip at 15423.16 and 13156.02.
Happy buying the dip.
BUY THE DIP, BUY THE DIP AND BUY THE DIP.
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The previous projection on Nasdaq to reach 15423.16 and 13156.02 is wrong. This is due to the effect of Fed's FOMC September 2024 rate cut of 50 basis points and the Market have taken it positively.
The October 2024 seasonality is still in play, price might drop from today's intraday of 18342.06 to lower.
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Did drop lower to 18315.59 for yesterday closing.Note
There was a question from a reader on December 15, 2024 asking the Nasdaq Composite support and resistance. Only today I check the notification. Sorry for the late reply.
From October 17, 2024 the Nasdaq has been on an uptrend since the Fed's first rate cut of 50 basis points and continue to rally after Trump won the USA presidential election.
The reason for the rally is due to Trump policy.
1) Less regulatory and pro-growth policy.
2) More tax cut for corporate, middle and low income earner.
3) Pro cryptocurrency - see the Bitcoin price to raise until USD108K before dropping.
However, the last four days the Nasdaq Composite has continue to drop since the Fed's FOMC say that the 4 cuts projected previously has been revised to 2 cuts this year 2025. The actual is the CME Feds watch tool has cuts drop to 1 cut for this year only. Due to the uncertainty of Trumps traffic over the import goods that will cause higher inflation to the core PCE later on after the traffic take effect. The CME tool might defer or even show no cut this year in 2025. Cause the market to drop further.
The market is currently pricing in this headwind. It might be a strong headwind later. Need to follow news on Trumps policy of traffic.
Nasdaq Composite is currently hovered around 19330.39 intraday on January 3, 2025. The support level currently is at 18663.71 the 4 hours chart support level. However, this is a weak support, might break this level easily if the market continued to have uncertainty in inflation, rate cuts and Trump traffics.
The next support level will be around 17751.66 if things continue to go south. Least likely to reach this level. The first 2 quarter based on Fundstrat Tom Lee will be a good quarter since the pro-growth policy. The 2nd last 2 quarter will be not so good since the effect on traffic on inflation that could move the CME feds watch tools to no rate cuts this year.
The resistance will be around 20937.59 for the 1 days chart resistance. If there is only strong tailwind only, like for sure USA economy is 100% sure not in recession just like Sarah Eisen of CNBC say after 12 months after the first rate cut. Plus no strong headwind exist, when the price goes near 20937.59. This level will break easily.
The market will continue to trend higher until a strong headwind appear or about to appear in the market regardless of the resistance level.
Note
I am not buying in a big way currently since I want to monitor the first 2 weeks of S&P 500 performance before deciding to put money in or not. The entire year stock performance has a lot of correlation with the first 2 weeks performance of the year in the USA market
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