NASDAQ (IXIC) major decision point! Bulls/bears take notice.
Updated
Some of you may have seen my previous chart of the Nasdaq (IXIC) posted here at trading view (chart linked below). This is really just an update to that chart with a detailed analysis of the intervening trading activities. The NASDAQ has risen right into the predicted price range (Fibonacci 50 to 61.8% retracement zones).
The recent patterns seem to confirm my thesis that the NASDAQ will start the next leg of the fall to the logarithmic trend line in the near future. The current move in the NASDAQ certainly does not look/feel like an impulse wave up. Instead, we see what appears to be a major B wave that is being formed by a three wave (ABC) pattern. Within this large Wave B, subwaves A and B are labeled. We are currently working on subwave C. This wave C appears to be an ascending wedge. I believe I can identify a pretty clear 5 wave pattern within wave C. Further, as is common for ascending triangles the volume has been falling as the ascent progressed. As we look at various indicators we see some bearish divergence during this ascending wedge pattern. Until today when the NASDAQ put in what might end up as a throw over, we saw lower highs on the RSI and MACD indicators.
Today's action looks like it could be the icing on the cake; a throw over to finish off this ascending wedge and complete the textbook description of this pattern. I entered some short positions today, so I'm certainly hoping my analysis is correct!
I'm curious about your thoughts about the price action: Is it just me or does the NASDAQ not have the "impulse wave up" look? I looked at the last few years of the NASDAQ chart, and I cannot find an impulse wave that looks like the pattern that has formed over the last couple weeks. Instead, this looks/feels like a correction (B) wave, and my wave counts fit best with this assessment.
The recent patterns seem to confirm my thesis that the NASDAQ will start the next leg of the fall to the logarithmic trend line in the near future. The current move in the NASDAQ certainly does not look/feel like an impulse wave up. Instead, we see what appears to be a major B wave that is being formed by a three wave (ABC) pattern. Within this large Wave B, subwaves A and B are labeled. We are currently working on subwave C. This wave C appears to be an ascending wedge. I believe I can identify a pretty clear 5 wave pattern within wave C. Further, as is common for ascending triangles the volume has been falling as the ascent progressed. As we look at various indicators we see some bearish divergence during this ascending wedge pattern. Until today when the NASDAQ put in what might end up as a throw over, we saw lower highs on the RSI and MACD indicators.
Today's action looks like it could be the icing on the cake; a throw over to finish off this ascending wedge and complete the textbook description of this pattern. I entered some short positions today, so I'm certainly hoping my analysis is correct!
I'm curious about your thoughts about the price action: Is it just me or does the NASDAQ not have the "impulse wave up" look? I looked at the last few years of the NASDAQ chart, and I cannot find an impulse wave that looks like the pattern that has formed over the last couple weeks. Instead, this looks/feels like a correction (B) wave, and my wave counts fit best with this assessment.
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Similar chart for SPY.Note on SPY we can see that it has moved up right to the 0.618 retracement level.
Also, we can see the volume has clearly been declining during the formation of the ascending wedge.
Note
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Well, the NASDAQ formed a Doji today (4/18/2018) on the daily chart.
I'm looking forward to tomorrow's action to see if this is merely a pause on a continued uptrend or if perhaps it represents a reversal pattern.
As we see from the picture above, the upper wick found resistance today right at the 61.8% retracement level. We'll see if this holds.
Trade closed: target reached
Fell as predicted to orange trend line.
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