The Nikkei considers a bounce ahead of the FOMC meeting
Updated
The Nikkei 225 has fallen sharpy towards (yet held above) the September low. A small bullish hammer formed on Thursday to show a loss of bearish momentum, alongside a false break of trend support. A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday and closed above the 100 and 200-day EMA's. Its low also respected a 50% retracement level and closed back above trend support for a second consecutive day.
We therefore suspect a bounce is on the cards, although as markets are wary of the upcoming FOMC meeting we are also aware that any such bounce may limited, so traders would be wise to keep a close eye on price action and not expect oversized moves, unless a new catalyst arrives.
Low volatility retracements within Friday's candle could help to improve the potential reward to risk ratio for bulls.
A potential bullish outcome for equities in general is if the Fed surprise with a less-hawkish-than expected hike. We know 75bp is mostly priced in, so if they hint at a slower rate of hikes going forward, equities might be able to cobble together a relief rally. Whilst a hawkish hike would likely present indices with swing highs and another leg lower.
We therefore suspect a bounce is on the cards, although as markets are wary of the upcoming FOMC meeting we are also aware that any such bounce may limited, so traders would be wise to keep a close eye on price action and not expect oversized moves, unless a new catalyst arrives.
Low volatility retracements within Friday's candle could help to improve the potential reward to risk ratio for bulls.
A potential bullish outcome for equities in general is if the Fed surprise with a less-hawkish-than expected hike. We know 75bp is mostly priced in, so if they hint at a slower rate of hikes going forward, equities might be able to cobble together a relief rally. Whilst a hawkish hike would likely present indices with swing highs and another leg lower.
Trade closed: stop reached
The bounce never materialised and the Nikkei was dragged swiftly lower with global equities in broad risk-off trade.
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