Good Day and I hope you are well.
JP Morgan /
JPM
comment: Clear bull wedge, which means buyers at new highs taking profits and since it's the third push up, the probability of a two legged correction breaking below the wedge is decent. Market touched the weekly 20ema 2 times over the past 3 months and the third time will probably happen soon. We also have a decent rejection at 210, which gives you even better odds for a short. I do think longer term shorts can work well, if you can hold 4-6 months until price reaches 185ish. Quicker short for 195, which is the most recent breakout price, is the safer play obviously. Once market hits the C target, I expect a lower high and then some stronger down move to below 190 over the next 6-12 months.
current market cycle: Bull trend which transitions into a trading range.
key levels: 190 - 210
bull case: Bulls see this recent bull trend inside the wedge as strong enough for a third leg. A measured move from W3 would lead to 220. For that to happen they want to stay inside the tight bull channel and turn the market around here quickly. I do think if it drops below 200, that bull trend is over and the high is in or at least a double top would not exceed it by more than 1-3$.
Bull Invalidation is below 200.
bear case: Bears want to keep the upper wedge line as resistance and test back down to the lower one around 196ish. They sold the previous highs for a 10% and a 7% drop. 10% down would bring us to 190, which is suprisingly around the weekly 20ema. Coincidences or math? You decide for yourself.
Bear Invalidation is above 215.
short term: bearish - Two legged correction to at least 200 over the next weeks.
medium-long term: bearish - Trading range 180-200, since we are at the highs, longer term shorts are reasonable.
current swing trade: Short 205, sl 215, tp 200ish or the lower bull wedge line/weekly 20ema
Have a good rest of your weekend and talk to you soon.
If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow.
Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
JP Morgan /
JPM comment: Clear bull wedge, which means buyers at new highs taking profits and since it's the third push up, the probability of a two legged correction breaking below the wedge is decent. Market touched the weekly 20ema 2 times over the past 3 months and the third time will probably happen soon. We also have a decent rejection at 210, which gives you even better odds for a short. I do think longer term shorts can work well, if you can hold 4-6 months until price reaches 185ish. Quicker short for 195, which is the most recent breakout price, is the safer play obviously. Once market hits the C target, I expect a lower high and then some stronger down move to below 190 over the next 6-12 months.
current market cycle: Bull trend which transitions into a trading range.
key levels: 190 - 210
bull case: Bulls see this recent bull trend inside the wedge as strong enough for a third leg. A measured move from W3 would lead to 220. For that to happen they want to stay inside the tight bull channel and turn the market around here quickly. I do think if it drops below 200, that bull trend is over and the high is in or at least a double top would not exceed it by more than 1-3$.
Bull Invalidation is below 200.
bear case: Bears want to keep the upper wedge line as resistance and test back down to the lower one around 196ish. They sold the previous highs for a 10% and a 7% drop. 10% down would bring us to 190, which is suprisingly around the weekly 20ema. Coincidences or math? You decide for yourself.
Bear Invalidation is above 215.
short term: bearish - Two legged correction to at least 200 over the next weeks.
medium-long term: bearish - Trading range 180-200, since we are at the highs, longer term shorts are reasonable.
current swing trade: Short 205, sl 215, tp 200ish or the lower bull wedge line/weekly 20ema
Have a good rest of your weekend and talk to you soon.
If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow.
Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.