JPM as A Gauge For Bull Run
I consider JPM as a source of truth in this bull run for several reasons:
Post-Banking Crisis Fragility: Especially following the banking crisis in 2023, banks are more fragile, and money has consolidated in some bigger, safer banks.
Exposure to Various Crises: They have a lot of skin in the game, so any crisis coming from either a tech bust, Japan, bonds, or inflation will surely affect them.
Too Big to Fail: They most probably won't go bankrupt; they are too big to fail.
Correlation with S&P 500: JPM is almost perfectly correlated with the S&P 500.
Lately, I have been observing new all-time highs from both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and of course, JPM. It hasn't even dropped below the weekly 20 MA as it did in 2021. So, it is still uncertain if this is a breather or the beginning of the end. Over the last four weeks, the wicks were up but pressured down. Making another local top will be the third in 2024, and that also create 2nd bearish divergence on RSI, so I would watch out for a quick meltdown.
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