JPY/USD presents a classic curve bottom formation, which is a powerful technical structure indicating accumulation by smart money. It’s supported by key price action behaviors like support/resistance flips, retesting confirmation, and a well-defined target zone.
Let’s break it down piece by piece.
📉 1. Curve Formation – Accumulation Phase
The most noticeable element here is the parabolic (curve) structure formed between October 2024 and March 2025. This kind of structure often reflects a slow accumulation process:
Price dips over several months form a rounded bottom — also called a saucer pattern.
This shows institutional players are quietly accumulating, while retail traders are often trapped in sell-side positions.
As the curve matures, the volume and momentum begin to shift, signaling the beginning of a bullish breakout.
This accumulation curve is bullish by nature and becomes even more potent when followed by a breakout and retest.
🔄 2. SR Flip Zone (Support-Resistance Interchange)
One of the most critical concepts in price action is the SR flip — where old resistance turns into new support. In this case:
The yellow-shaded zone previously acted as resistance — confirmed by multiple rejections.
After the breakout, this same zone is being retested as support — a healthy technical confirmation that the market has accepted higher prices.
This flip zone is a launchpad for continuation to the upside.
📍 3. Retest Confirmation – Smart Entry Opportunity
Zooming into recent price action:
The market pulled back cleanly into the SR zone and the curve line.
The confluence of horizontal support and the curved trendline makes this an extremely strong retest zone.
Buyers stepped in with force, suggesting that demand is active at this level.
This retest is where risk-to-reward is optimized. The ideal entries usually happen when price confirms structure after a breakout — not before.
🎯 4. Target Zone – Next Bullish Objective
The next logical target is shown in the blue box above (~0.00705–0.00710). Here's why this zone is important:
It marks a previous supply/resistance area.
It aligns with psychological round numbers and past consolidation.
A measured move from the bottom of the curve also aligns with this target.
In essence, it is the profit-taking zone where the market is likely to pause or reverse temporarily.
🔎 5. Insider Supply & Central Zone – Institutional Traces
The chart labels an “Insider Supply” area at the base of the curve. This implies:
Hidden accumulation likely occurred at this level.
Institutions tend to trap retail sellers during these periods with false breakdowns.
Once they’ve loaded up, price shifts upward in a controlled fashion — exactly what has happened here.
The Central Zone is the battlefield — the area where prior indecision took place, which has now turned into a stepping stone for upward movement.
💡 Strategy Recap:
Parameter Value
Entry Retest of SR Flip (0.00680–0.00685)
Stop Loss Below curve base (~0.00670 or lower)
Target 0.00705–0.00710
R/R Ratio 1:2 or better
This strategy is technically sound, supported by structure, and has strong reward potential.
🧠 Market Psychology:
Smart money accumulates when price is quiet and sentiment is bearish.
After accumulation, a controlled markup begins, with retests engineered to confirm the breakout.
Retail traders tend to enter late or get faked out — while institutions already hold positions.
This chart is a textbook example of how professional traders operate and manage structure-based risk.
🏁 Final Thoughts:
This is a high-probability technical setup built on multiple layers of confluence:
Curve structure
SR flip
Demand zone retest
Momentum shift
If momentum continues, the 0.00710 zone is a very realistic short-term target. Traders should manage risk tightly and monitor price behavior near the upper resistance box.
Let’s break it down piece by piece.
📉 1. Curve Formation – Accumulation Phase
The most noticeable element here is the parabolic (curve) structure formed between October 2024 and March 2025. This kind of structure often reflects a slow accumulation process:
Price dips over several months form a rounded bottom — also called a saucer pattern.
This shows institutional players are quietly accumulating, while retail traders are often trapped in sell-side positions.
As the curve matures, the volume and momentum begin to shift, signaling the beginning of a bullish breakout.
This accumulation curve is bullish by nature and becomes even more potent when followed by a breakout and retest.
🔄 2. SR Flip Zone (Support-Resistance Interchange)
One of the most critical concepts in price action is the SR flip — where old resistance turns into new support. In this case:
The yellow-shaded zone previously acted as resistance — confirmed by multiple rejections.
After the breakout, this same zone is being retested as support — a healthy technical confirmation that the market has accepted higher prices.
This flip zone is a launchpad for continuation to the upside.
📍 3. Retest Confirmation – Smart Entry Opportunity
Zooming into recent price action:
The market pulled back cleanly into the SR zone and the curve line.
The confluence of horizontal support and the curved trendline makes this an extremely strong retest zone.
Buyers stepped in with force, suggesting that demand is active at this level.
This retest is where risk-to-reward is optimized. The ideal entries usually happen when price confirms structure after a breakout — not before.
🎯 4. Target Zone – Next Bullish Objective
The next logical target is shown in the blue box above (~0.00705–0.00710). Here's why this zone is important:
It marks a previous supply/resistance area.
It aligns with psychological round numbers and past consolidation.
A measured move from the bottom of the curve also aligns with this target.
In essence, it is the profit-taking zone where the market is likely to pause or reverse temporarily.
🔎 5. Insider Supply & Central Zone – Institutional Traces
The chart labels an “Insider Supply” area at the base of the curve. This implies:
Hidden accumulation likely occurred at this level.
Institutions tend to trap retail sellers during these periods with false breakdowns.
Once they’ve loaded up, price shifts upward in a controlled fashion — exactly what has happened here.
The Central Zone is the battlefield — the area where prior indecision took place, which has now turned into a stepping stone for upward movement.
💡 Strategy Recap:
Parameter Value
Entry Retest of SR Flip (0.00680–0.00685)
Stop Loss Below curve base (~0.00670 or lower)
Target 0.00705–0.00710
R/R Ratio 1:2 or better
This strategy is technically sound, supported by structure, and has strong reward potential.
🧠 Market Psychology:
Smart money accumulates when price is quiet and sentiment is bearish.
After accumulation, a controlled markup begins, with retests engineered to confirm the breakout.
Retail traders tend to enter late or get faked out — while institutions already hold positions.
This chart is a textbook example of how professional traders operate and manage structure-based risk.
🏁 Final Thoughts:
This is a high-probability technical setup built on multiple layers of confluence:
Curve structure
SR flip
Demand zone retest
Momentum shift
If momentum continues, the 0.00710 zone is a very realistic short-term target. Traders should manage risk tightly and monitor price behavior near the upper resistance box.
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.