🧠 JPY/USD (45-Minute Chart) – Triple Top & Rising Wedge Breakdown in Play
Published: April 15, 2025
Instrument: Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar (JPY/USD)
Timeframe: 45-Minute
Analysis by: Royalfxsignal
🔍 Technical Chart Breakdown
🔺 1. Triple Top Pattern – Bearish Reversal Formation
The chart clearly illustrates a Triple Top—a classic bearish reversal pattern—formed at the key resistance zone of 0.007040 to 0.007060. This pattern signifies a bullish exhaustion phase after an extended uptrend. Here's how it played out:
Top 1: Price aggressively pushed to the resistance zone, but was sharply rejected.
Top 2: Price rallied again with lower momentum, creating a double top structure.
Top 3: A third attempt failed again at the same resistance level—forming the full Triple Top.
This sequence indicates a shift in market sentiment, where buyers are no longer willing to push prices higher, and sellers are stepping in with strength.
The neckline of this pattern rests around 0.006970, acting as the immediate support and a potential breakdown trigger.
🔻 2. Rising Wedge – Breakdown Confirmation Pattern
Adding to the bearish bias is the Rising Wedge, which is typically a bearish continuation or reversal pattern, especially when occurring near resistance. Key elements:
The wedge forms after the triple top, consolidating within upward-sloping support and resistance.
Although the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows, the price action is weakening and becoming compressed—a common sign of impending breakout.
The rising wedge breakdown aligns with the neckline of the triple top, creating a dual-confirmation entry zone.
📌 Why this matters: When a Rising Wedge follows a Triple Top, it acts as a confirmation structure. Traders gain confidence once the wedge breaks downward.
🔑 Support & Resistance Zones
Level Type Price Level Importance
🔴 Major Resistance 0.007040 – 0.007060 Triple Top Zone / Strong Rejection Area
🟣 Key Support (Neckline) 0.006970 Breakdown Zone / Entry Confirmation
🟢 Target Support 0.006955 Previous Demand Area / Fib Cluster
🔵 Stop Loss 0.007100 Above Recent Swing High / Invalidates Setup
💼 Trading Setup – Plan & Risk Management
📈 Trade Type: Short / Sell
⏳ Time Horizon: 1–3 Days (Intraday Swing)
Entry Trigger: Break and close below 0.006970
Take Profit (TP): 0.006955
Stop Loss (SL): 0.007100
Risk–Reward Ratio: ~1.8 to 2.2 depending on entry
⚠️ Note: Traders may also consider a retail trap retracement back into the wedge before continuation to the downside for a better risk entry.
💡 Market Psychology & Price Behavior
The formation of three failed peaks reflects strong institutional selling interest at resistance. Retail traders are likely trying to buy breakouts, but the lack of follow-through tells a different story.
The Rising Wedge draws in breakout buyers, but this may be a bull trap. Once the wedge collapses, stop hunts and panic selling may accelerate the move to the downside.
📊 Confluence Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
Triple Top + Rising Wedge = strong reversal signal
Key resistance tested multiple times and held
Breakdown of wedge support aligns with neckline zone
Price action shows exhaustion near highs
Potential divergence in volume or momentum (optional check)
📌 Conclusion
The JPY/USD pair on the 45-minute timeframe is offering a high-probability short setup, combining both a Triple Top reversal and a Rising Wedge breakdown near a well-defined resistance zone. If price confirms a break below 0.006970, this sets the stage for a measured move toward the 0.006955 target.
The setup offers a clean structure, strong confluence, and well-defined risk parameters—making it ideal for both technical day traders and swing traders looking to capitalize on short-term momentum reversals.
Published: April 15, 2025
Instrument: Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar (JPY/USD)
Timeframe: 45-Minute
Analysis by: Royalfxsignal
🔍 Technical Chart Breakdown
🔺 1. Triple Top Pattern – Bearish Reversal Formation
The chart clearly illustrates a Triple Top—a classic bearish reversal pattern—formed at the key resistance zone of 0.007040 to 0.007060. This pattern signifies a bullish exhaustion phase after an extended uptrend. Here's how it played out:
Top 1: Price aggressively pushed to the resistance zone, but was sharply rejected.
Top 2: Price rallied again with lower momentum, creating a double top structure.
Top 3: A third attempt failed again at the same resistance level—forming the full Triple Top.
This sequence indicates a shift in market sentiment, where buyers are no longer willing to push prices higher, and sellers are stepping in with strength.
The neckline of this pattern rests around 0.006970, acting as the immediate support and a potential breakdown trigger.
🔻 2. Rising Wedge – Breakdown Confirmation Pattern
Adding to the bearish bias is the Rising Wedge, which is typically a bearish continuation or reversal pattern, especially when occurring near resistance. Key elements:
The wedge forms after the triple top, consolidating within upward-sloping support and resistance.
Although the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows, the price action is weakening and becoming compressed—a common sign of impending breakout.
The rising wedge breakdown aligns with the neckline of the triple top, creating a dual-confirmation entry zone.
📌 Why this matters: When a Rising Wedge follows a Triple Top, it acts as a confirmation structure. Traders gain confidence once the wedge breaks downward.
🔑 Support & Resistance Zones
Level Type Price Level Importance
🔴 Major Resistance 0.007040 – 0.007060 Triple Top Zone / Strong Rejection Area
🟣 Key Support (Neckline) 0.006970 Breakdown Zone / Entry Confirmation
🟢 Target Support 0.006955 Previous Demand Area / Fib Cluster
🔵 Stop Loss 0.007100 Above Recent Swing High / Invalidates Setup
💼 Trading Setup – Plan & Risk Management
📈 Trade Type: Short / Sell
⏳ Time Horizon: 1–3 Days (Intraday Swing)
Entry Trigger: Break and close below 0.006970
Take Profit (TP): 0.006955
Stop Loss (SL): 0.007100
Risk–Reward Ratio: ~1.8 to 2.2 depending on entry
⚠️ Note: Traders may also consider a retail trap retracement back into the wedge before continuation to the downside for a better risk entry.
💡 Market Psychology & Price Behavior
The formation of three failed peaks reflects strong institutional selling interest at resistance. Retail traders are likely trying to buy breakouts, but the lack of follow-through tells a different story.
The Rising Wedge draws in breakout buyers, but this may be a bull trap. Once the wedge collapses, stop hunts and panic selling may accelerate the move to the downside.
📊 Confluence Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
Triple Top + Rising Wedge = strong reversal signal
Key resistance tested multiple times and held
Breakdown of wedge support aligns with neckline zone
Price action shows exhaustion near highs
Potential divergence in volume or momentum (optional check)
📌 Conclusion
The JPY/USD pair on the 45-minute timeframe is offering a high-probability short setup, combining both a Triple Top reversal and a Rising Wedge breakdown near a well-defined resistance zone. If price confirms a break below 0.006970, this sets the stage for a measured move toward the 0.006955 target.
The setup offers a clean structure, strong confluence, and well-defined risk parameters—making it ideal for both technical day traders and swing traders looking to capitalize on short-term momentum reversals.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.