KAVAUSD – Midpoint Retest with a Shot at a Daily Higher Low

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Watching KAVA here on the daily, and it’s at a key decision point that could define the next leg. We’ve got two sets of Fibonacci retracements drawn: the first from the March 2024 high to the August 2024 low, and the second from the August low to the December high. Right now, price is retesting the 50% level of the larger March–August move—aka the midpoint of the macro range—and it's still holding above the 50% retracement of the more recent August–December leg. We’re also sitting right on the 38.2% Fib of that second move, which tends to act as a key area for potential higher lows.

The idea here is simple: I’m playing for a daily higher low. We had a strong move off the December lows, followed by a healthy consolidation, and this is where bulls need to step in. Structure-wise, this is the ideal area for bulls to attempt a defense if the trend is going to continue. EMAs are curling up, and price is still holding above the 12 and 26 EMAs for now, which gives me confidence in a potential bounce.

If the Trade Goes as Planned (Bullish Case)
If buyers step in here and confirm a higher low—ideally somewhere between $0.48 and $0.50—we’d expect a continuation toward the recent high at $0.56. If that level breaks, then $0.64 becomes the next area of interest based on prior price structure and confluence with the upper Fib retracement levels. From there, we could even make a push toward the $0.74 area, where the last major rejection happened in late 2024.
A strong bounce here also sets up a potential inverse head and shoulders structure on the daily if we revisit that neckline around $0.56 again with momentum. In short, a higher low here gives the bulls the setup they need to retake trend control.

If the Trade Fails (Bearish Case)
If price fails to hold the $0.48–$0.50 region and breaks below the August–December 50% Fib level, then we’re likely heading back to the $0.44 zone. That’s where the 200-day SMA is sitting, and it’s also a major pivot from previous support. A loss of that zone opens the door to a full retrace toward $0.39 or even $0.37—last seen during the November-December basing structure.
In that case, the trend would flip neutral at best and would require a fresh base-building phase before bulls could even think about regaining momentum.

TL;DR
Thesis: Playing for a daily higher low above key Fib levels and EMAs.

Bullish Target: Reclaim $0.56 → push toward $0.64–$0.74 if momentum follows through.

Bearish Invalidator: Break below $0.48 = likely revisit of $0.44 or lower.

Not financial advice. Just sharing my thinking as I try to stack confluence and play the levels. Let’s see if this bounce gets legs.

seaphoss

Whatever you do, take care of your shoes.

Just sharing what I’m learning on this trading journey. Check out my charts, and let me know what you think.

Always use stop losses. Not Financial Advice.
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seaphoss

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