KR (Kroger Company)
Sentiment
• Analysis: Market sentiment for KR is neutral leaning bullish. Post-close options activity on April 10 shows balanced put/call volume, with slight call dominance at strikes near $69, suggesting cautious optimism. RSI (14) at the April 10 close (estimated ~60 based on recent uptrend to $67.96) indicates momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a potential continuation. Anonymized X chatter highlights speculation on grocery sector stability amid tariff uncertainties, with some noting KR’s domestic focus as a hedge against import risks. A potential liquidity sweep above recent highs ($68.76) could signal institutional buying, setting up a reversal to the upside.
Catalyst: Watch for a sweep above $68.76 triggering bullish momentum, driven by retail investor interest on X.
Tariff Impact - Rating: Minimal.
• Explanation: KR’s exposure to tariffs is limited due to its primarily domestic supply chain and focus on U.S.-sourced goods. While imported specialty products could face cost pressures, these are a small fraction of revenue. No tariff relief or escalation was announced on April 10, so sentiment remains stable. Fundamentals are unaffected, but speculative X posts suggest tariff fears could cap upside unless clarity emerges.
News/Catalysts
• No specific company news on April 10, but sector strength in consumer staples drove modest gains, with KR benefiting from defensive positioning amid broader market volatility. X posts noted KR as a “safe play” in uncertain times.
• Upcoming: CPI Data (Today, April 11): Stronger-than-expected CPI could pressure consumer staples (-1% move) as investors rotate to cyclicals; weaker CPI could boost KR (+2%) as a defensive name.
• Retail Sales (April 15): Robust data may signal consumer strength, lifting KR (+1.5%); weak data could hurt (-1%) due to spending concerns.
Technical Setup
Weekly Chart:
• HVN: $66.50 as support (bullish, price above).
• LVN: $70.00 as resistance (neutral, price below).
• EMA Trend: 8-week > 13-week > 48-week (bullish uptrend).
• RSI (14): ~62 (bullish, above 50).
• MACD: Above signal line (bullish).
• Bollinger Bands: Near upper band (bullish).
• Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish).
• Williams %R: ~-20 (neutral, not overbought).
• ADR: Expanding (bullish, volatility rising).
• VWAP: Above weekly VWAP at $67.00 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Higher highs/lows confirm bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS).
One-Hour Chart:
• Support/Resistance: Support at $67.50 (weekly HVN confluence); resistance at $68.76 (daily high). Stance: bullish above support.
• RSI (14): ~65 (bullish).
• MACD: Above signal (bullish).
• Bollinger Bands: At upper band (neutral, potential pullback).
• Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish).
• Williams %R: ~-15 (neutral).
• VWAP: Above hourly VWAP at $68.20 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Buy-side liquidity above $68.76; Order Block (OB) at $67.50 demand zone; FVG at $68.00–$68.10; OTE (Fib 61.8%) at $68.30; displacement seen in early April 11 rally.
10-Minute Chart:
• Closing Move: Strong rally into April 10 close, holding above $67.96.
• EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs rising (bullish).
• RSI (14): ~60 (neutral).
• MACD: Above zero (bullish).
• VWAP: Above VWAP at $68.30 (bullish).
• ICT/SMC: Liquidity sweep above $68.40 in pre-market; retracement to OTE at $68.30; pin bar forming as entry signal.
Options Data
• GEX: Neutral, slight bullish pinning at $68. Dealers may buy stock to hedge, supporting price at $68–$69. Explanation: Gamma Exposure balances calls/puts, stabilizing price near strikes.
• DEX: Moderate call delta bias (+0.25), indicating bullish pressure. Explanation: Net call buying drives directional momentum.
• IV: Moderate (~22%, near norm), suggesting steady swings. Explanation: Implied Volatility supports consistent options pricing.
• OI: Call-heavy (60% calls at $69 strike), favoring upside momentum. Explanation: Open Interest at $69 signals potential breakout target.
Cem Karsan’s Application:
• Weekly Trading Breakdown: High call OI at $69 (exp. April 18) suggests pinning or breakout potential. Gamma supports stability at $68; vanna indicates dealers buy on IV spikes to 23%, lifting price. Charm accelerates delta near OPEX, favoring $69 calls if in-the-money.
• Strategy: Buy $69 calls at $68.30 (OTE), exit at $69.50, profit $0.50, risk $0.40. Ties to liquidity sweep above $68.76, targeting $69 OB.
• Vanna: Rising IV to 23% could push dealers to buy, lifting KR to $69 (bullish).
• Charm: Near OPEX, $69 calls hold delta if ITM, boosting volatility.
Timeframe Analysis:
• Weekly (exp. April 18): 60% call OI at $69, moderate IV, bullish stance.
• Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, stable IV, neutral stance.
• 3-Month (exp. July 18): Slight call skew, low IV, bullish outlook.
• Directional Bias: Bullish, driven by call OI, positive GEX, and OTE setup at $68.30.
Sympathy Plays
• Correlated Assets: WMT (+2% if KR rallies), COST (+1.5%).
• Opposite Mover: If KR rallies (defensive), risk-on names like SHOP fade (-1%).
Sector Positioning with RRG
• Sector: Consumer Staples – Food Retail.
• RRG Position: Improving vs. XLP ETF, aligning with bullish sentiment and technicals.
Targets
• Bullish: +3% to $70.50 (next liquidity zone, OB at $70).
• Bearish: -2% to $66.60 (FVG at $66.50).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.