My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower.
But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure.
So, if price closes below red line (MSB), we will have the valid short setup.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.