symmetri triangel
Eli Lilly has formed a symmetrical triangle after falling from an ascending trend. The hypothesis is supported by decreasing volume towards the apex.
Ideally, the breakout should occur 2/3 of the way into the triangle. That is not the case here. Now we are close to the apex, so a breakout must be imminent.
It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with a symmetrical triangle, even though the upper boundary has been tested the most.
Be mindful of false breakouts – a true breakout should occur with high volume.
Disclaimer: I have a position in Eli Lilly.
Ideally, the breakout should occur 2/3 of the way into the triangle. That is not the case here. Now we are close to the apex, so a breakout must be imminent.
It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with a symmetrical triangle, even though the upper boundary has been tested the most.
Be mindful of false breakouts – a true breakout should occur with high volume.
Disclaimer: I have a position in Eli Lilly.
Note
When the breakout occurs at the apex, it will often be less strong compared to when it happens two-thirds into the triangle.Note
There are some factors to be aware of when comparing Cagrisema and Zepbound.
Novo’s study “REDEFINE 1” on Cagrisema is currently only available as an abstract (1), but it is expected to be published in a medical journal this year.
Eli Lilly’s study “SURMOUNT 1” on Zepbound is published in The New England Journal of Medicine (2).
In Novo’s study with Cagrisema, a weight loss of 22.7% was achieved after 68 weeks of treatment, but only 57.3% of the patients were on the maximum dose at the end of the study. The protocol was flexible, allowing patients to adjust their dosage up or down throughout the study.
There were multiple arms in the study, but the arm with Cagrisema is the relevant one here. The number of patients who completely discontinued Cagrisema is not provided.
In Eli Lilly’s study with Zepbound, a weight loss of 20.9% was achieved after 72 weeks of treatment, but only patients who reached the maximum dose were included, meaning 15 mg weekly. The study was divided into multiple arms with lower doses and placebo, but all had worse results than the arm with 15 mg.
Of all arms receiving active medication, 86% completed the study. Among those on 15 mg, 6.2% discontinued due to side effects.
These two studies have such different designs that they are difficult to compare.
Several studies are planned, but to my knowledge, none will directly compare the two drugs.
Additionally, there are more new medications on the way, including Retatrutide from Eli Lilly, which showed a weight loss of 24.2% in a Phase 2 study.
References
(1)
globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/20/3000444/0/en/Novo-Nordisk-A-S-CagriSema-demonstrates-superior-weight-loss-in-adults-with-obesity-or-overweight-in-the-REDEFINE-1-trial.html
(2)
nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2206038
Disclaimer: I hold positions in both Novo and Eli Lilly.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.