Updated

LTC Nearing Decision Time for 15-25% Swing

Following yesterday's 10% swing LTCUSD has formed a larger diamond as predicted. If you followed yesterdays idea you caught a 10% swing and now a setup for larger 15-25% swing looks to be forming.

Inside of the diamond are mixed chart signals including a potential descending triangle forming and a potential inverse head and shoulders.

As price action nears the APEX of the diamond, watch for a breakout of the Diamond and confirmation of either a bottom or a half-staff continuation.

Price targets on chart for breakout in either direction.

Breaking up out of the descending triangle before it forms would be a preliminary bullish indicator. A move to the upper trend line would further support the bullish scenario.

Moving down to the bottom trend line of the potential descending triangle would confirm the pattern and support a bearish scenario.

thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html

Note

The downward resistance trend line the descending triangle has broke, giving more support to a potential bullish scenario.

Trade active

Playing some scalps here. Long position opened at 116.8. Expecting a test of 119.73 and/or the diamond trend line at a minimum.

Note

As usual, tight stops are mandatory.

Note

Diamond trendline being tested.

Note

Broke diamond trendline, trying to test the previous diamond tip at 119.73. Pullback possible here.

Note

Bulls took the tip. Decision time for a pullback or upward continuation.

Note

Little back and forth over the tip resistance...

Trade closed manually

Taking profit. Will buy back in using a stop buy at small loss if we break the resistance. Otherwise, looking for a small pullback to buy in.

Trade active

Re-entered after bounce off 5m ema 12 (118.6)

Note

Nice bounce. Trying to break 120 resistance now.

Note

Bull volume is still strong.

snag.gy/wag7jz.jpg

Note

Looks like bulls are accumulating here while letting the price slip a little.

snag.gy/z9UpuF.jpg

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out.

Note

Indicators on multiple time frames are turning bearish as bear volume has finally shown up. This little bounce here might be short lived.

snag.gy/YQeJ0d.jpg

Trade active

Testing 120 again, might take profit here for another 3% gain.

Note

Breakout...

Note

Two 4k+ LTC buys back to back on GDAX. Expecting a test of the larger diamond tip around 126.91 here. Will review MAs and ICHI clouds for other interim targets.
snag.gy/8EJRvI.jpg

Note

Currently hitting 26ema on the 2 hr.

Have ICHI could resistance on the 30 just short of 125.

Past resistance in the chart. Otherwise, should be all clear to test the larger diamond upper tip.

Note

Bull volume still strong. snag.gy/bYAICP.jpg

Historically speaking, LTC pivots on 5 with 2.50 and 7.50 being battlegrounds. If bulls can't take 122.5, I would expect a pullback below 120.

Note

We're up 9% already but just a reminder, Tight stops are mandatory.

Note

Battling for the critical 2.50 pivot now.

Note

Bears rejected 2.50 . Not liking the potential gravestone on the 30. Really a horrible candle by itself. However, next candle could confirm trend reversal.

Note

Gravestone turned into a potential evening star. I might to take profit on the next pump here and look buy back in below 120.

Note

Back to an doji. Trade still active watching price action to see if bulls will continue up.

Note

Little pump... this candle is fine. Indicates upward continuation.

Note

Bulls pushing toward 2.50 again...

Note

2.50 taken.

Note

15 and 30 minute indicators show pump is getting overheated. 1 hour has a little room to run. Following with a tight trailing stop to take profit here.

15

Trade closed: stop reached

Stop hit at 123.25. Nice swing trade from 116.25 there for 6% profit. Watching price action here for further direction.

Note

Bad timing... Look at that pump...

Trade active

Needless to say trad active again. Back in at 124.

Trade closed: stop reached

4 dojis in a row on the 15. Clearly undecided. Make your own decision here... Personally closing out for a small loss at 3.5

Note

Watching the 2.50 pivot here for a decision.

Note

Hit right between the 30 min ICHI cloud target and the diamond tip. Bulls gave up the 2.50 pivot.

Trade active

Immediately taken back. Long 122.5

Trade closed: stop reached

Exited at 122.99. Frustrating. Chop time I suppose.

Trade active

Long at 2.5 again

Trade closed: target reached

Exiting here.

Trade active

Long here at 118.20, per usual tight stop.

Note

Up $2 so far...

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out at 120.

Trade active

Re-entered at 119.44

Trade closed: stop reached

Note

This could lose ground quite fast.

Note

Local target on the downside drop is 8.53 from 117.27 to 108.74 if the bulls do not show up here and support 117. On such a down swing, a test of the inner diamond tip red lines at 112 and 109.27 can be expected.

Another scenario is continue to chop sideways between the 117.5 and 122.5 range until there is decisive breakout in either direction, making shorting here risking. Likewise, going long is also risk because the bottom can easily fallout from under 117 support.

Note

Likely scenarios....

Trade active

Going to make risky play and go long at 117.10 to play a back test of that trend line. Tight stop required because bottom can quickly fall out.

I suspect I 'll get stopped out.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out at 7.5

Note

Didn't realize, but visible on the 1 minute, already back tested that trend line once.

Note

LTC has now consolidated into a larger diamond. Price still fell out the bottom and TPs from the original diamond remain unchanged. We could be seeing throwback or pullback, but breaking the tip still remains final confirmation.

Note

Looks like we have a falling wedge after that bounce pointing to 112. Note the price action is based on very low volume, result of asks being pulled on low volume buys -> snag.gy/t7mGpN.jpg

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/y/YDwOhMHG.png

Note

BTC big picture since we can' forget LTC will trade in tandem....

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/j/JdtDKQcx.png

Note

LTC local diamond could be forming on the 15.

Note

Scalp targets on local diamond breakout, if it forms.

Note

LTC getting closer to forming a definitive local diamond. Still could be a few hours away before we see significant local price action.

Note

Perfect hit... Looking for further consolidation now.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/3/3SBnZJK7.png

Note

Price bouncing as expected, Maybe short lived. Waiting on breakout confirmation.

Trade active

Long here at 116.6, scalping the diamond and playing a potential breakout.

Note

Traded sideways on the 15 and the 30 minute. Not exactly the breakout needed....

Trade closed: stop reached

Note

And price bounces back $1 on no volume. Testing trendline again.

Note

Obvious how that would turn out...

Note

LTC should testing that tip around 115.54. If it breaks 112 inbound...

Note

Testing the tip. Nice size buy wall between it and 115.... Let's see how this turns out.

Note

LTC Tip broke, Bears chewing away at buy wall.

In the mean time, BTC has also fell out the bottom of its larger diamond and should be heading down to test its tip

Note

Looks like a back test. Will take some time to bleed down. Will be bounces on the way.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/mFN1ok6k.png

Note

LTC local diamond almost at TP...

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/WKeSMMbs.png

Meanwhile, BTC making its way to testing that larger tip...

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/b/BeatQmWU.png

Note

LTC local Diamond price target hit. Watching price action.

Note

LTC testing 112 target...

Note

112 broke...

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/l/laww99Zb.png

Note

So far just a wick and bounce but could be from shorts covering.

Note

BTC looking ready to make a decision here...

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/j/jAZvXVzh.png

Note

Watch for a breakout up on BTC,hitting the red line would be a nice resistance point and could form a nasty local head and shoulders.

Note

LTC appears to have fell out of bull pennant is back testing now.

Note

BTC... 15 min:

And in better detail..

Trade active

LTC long 115.5, with tight top. BTC breaking out of diamond upward...

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out at 116.99. small 1.25% profit. BTC has failed to reach its Diamond TP, so pull back expected.

Trade active

LONG 116.25, tight stop

Trade closed manually

Taking profit at 188.8, just before our previous diamond tip. Will buy back in if resistance break.s

Note

LTC TP here should be over 120. But we have resistance tips at 188.83 and at 191.71. Expect a pullback.

Note

Perfect hit. Not sure how much pullback we will see, Bulls are buying aggressively. Rather lock in 2.25% profit instead of taking the risk. Would not be surprised to see this continue up though.

Note

Bulls broke through first resistance after 5 minutes of trying. Should hit 1 hour cloud resistance, then larger diamond resistance over the next dollar.

Putting in a lower limit order to catch a dump. Will buy back if we break trough the resistance.

Note

Bulls put up a very large buy wall (8K) on gdax starting 188.83. Don't think they plan on giving it up.

Hitting second TP now at 119.73

Note

LTC Dump right on target as expected. Expected it to be larger....

BTC also maybe putting in a rounded top short of 7k after breaking out if its bull flag.

Note

Looks LTC bulls and bears will battle over the 118.83 - 119.73 range here.

Note

GDAX buy wall being pulled. Bulls look prepared to give it up as BTC continues its pullback.

Note

Bears dumping into the buy wall. Keeps getting lowered and put back. Appears bulls will support it to an extent and imagine they will let it go if sell volume gets to high. Contemplating buying back in here with a tight stop.

Trade active

Long 118.86, if nothing else maybe we chop sideways for a few $1 scalp.s

Note

GDAX buy is indicative of a Whale using a bot to cost average in buys.

snag.gy/m1HJ7k.jpg

Trade closed: stop reached

Trailing Stop hit at 119.19. LTC Bulls aren't buying here with BTC in a pullback.

Note

Dumped right through that buy wall...

snag.gy/cn5OaV.jpg

Trade active

BTC pumping, Long 118.6

Note

Really need BTC to hold 7k here...

Note

BTC Back above 7k... needs to first hold and then start climbing toward the 7250 diamond Tip and LTCwill start running...

Note

Not looking good for BTC, below 7k again.

Trade closed: stop reached

Note

Red candle on the hourly here would have bearish implications. LTC needs to close it green.

Note

LTC just made the hourly candle pattern bulls didn't want to see.

Note

Potential Scalp: BTC and LTC has formed Descending Broadening wedge. Trade rule is to buy the 3rd touch and target Point (A) where the descent began with and 83% success rate. thepatternsite.com/dbw.html.

It would appear the 115.5-116.5 area might where this touch might occur.

thepatternsite.com/dbw.html

Trade active

Going to long a small position here because looking at the charts we may have had 3 touches going by candle bodies as opposed to wicks.

Trade closed: target reached

Target hit. 1% gain but it adds up.

Note

LTC has fell out of a local rising wedge, and is heading for the neckline of a local head and shoulders. TP on the HnS is 113.7 but previous support at 115 should hold. It is also possible that the neckline holds. Possible bounce areas highlighted.

Note

Correction: Local Ascending Broadening Wedge, not rising.

Note

If LTC breaks down this scenario could playout....

Trade closed: target reached

AWB Scalp targets hit. Nice 2% gain there.

Trade active

LTC long again at 119.1 with tight stop.

Note

Looking for a breakout on an ihs. TP would be 129.5, but we have a few resistance points along the way.

Note

BTC is currently bull flagging inside a diamond with with an upper TP of 7420.1 and a lower tp of 6558.1.

Additional BTC has broke out of an inverse head and shoulders with a target price 7645. Past targets and resistance still in place.

Trade closed manually

Locking int a 2% profit here. LTC has formed a rising wedge and indicators say its time for a little bit of break. Will Target an MA to buy back in cheaper.

Note

Good timing. Hitting that wedge line. Would like to see it fall out here to fell safer about going long though....

Trade active

Hitting the 15 ema 26 at 191.51 right now which is a good bounce point. Ideally, a pullback to the black trend line. But would rather take the $2 increase instead of risking it. However, we can pull back further.

Note

Sill over cooked on the 30 and 1 hour TFs. Might play some more chop to pick some extra coin but that risks selling and having to buy back higher. Watching price action.

Trade closed manually

Took a little under 1% profit. Hourly candle doesn't look good.

Note

Down it goes. Gonna let this cool off for a bit here, indicators over heated and look for potential support for reentry. 118.83 or low 119 might do the trick depending on how aggressive the selling is or isn't.

Trade active

Going long at 118.8 with tight stop after bouncing off the 1 hour 12 ema.

Note

Tapped out at 118.99. Looking to rebuy lower

Trade closed manually

Taking profit at 119.99

Note

LTC is forming a local diamond similar to a previous fractal. Will be watching for a breakout.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/t/t3LJgs9y.png

Note

LTC bouncing off diamond trendline. Still risky to trade. Playing that bounce, use a tight stop

Note

LTC nearing first decision here...

Note

LTC has made first decision... Down

Note

LTC Potential falling wedge also broke.

Note

If this holds the trendline would establish an ideal uptrend channel.It is competing against the diamond and local head and shoulders the price just fell from.

Note

Failed to hold. Chart pattern price target is 115.78. Resistance points along the way along with diamond tip right below it.

Note

Going long at 117.7 Potentially dangerous trade to catch, as a cascade of chart patterns could lead us back down to 110 if we don't get a strong bounce. Cover with a tight stop.

Note

Took profit at 119.73 TP. Buying back in lower.

Trade active

Long at 119.2

Trade closed manually

Took profit at 120.10, nearly 3% over last two trades. Should pull back to 118.8 for reentry

Trade active

Long at 118.5, potential morning star reversal candlestick on the hourly.

Trade closed manually

Getting out at same price. Reversal stick being invalidated.

Trade active

Long at 118.1

Trade closed: target reached

Another profit at 119.73 TP

Trade active

Long 119.4, tight stop.

Trade closed manually

Unexpected dump. exited on bounce back to 119.4

Note

Possible Dump incoming...

LTC at possible top of right shoulder of an HNS. A few cents down would make a graveyard or a possible evening star on the hourly

Mean while, BTC has a potential graveyard on the 30 minute, which may also double on the hourly and maybe completing a triple top.

Note

Watching this hourly close for confirmation.

Note

Correction: Gravestone, not graveyard.

Trade active

LTC long... LTC should be a hold here as long as it stays above this trendline. Breaking it would imply a TP of 110.

Note

If LTC breaks this trend line it will form an ascending broadening wedge.

Note

LTC and BTC TP1 hit.

LTC has broke the diamond TP 126.91. On upward continuation, it should find resistance at 130.02 as it moves toward the 133.23 inverse head and shoulders target and on toward the major diamond target at 144.55

BTC has hit its local diamond TP at 7420.

BTC is now inside a rising wedge and if it continues up should move toward the inverse head and shoulders target price of 7645. On upward continuation it should move toward its diamond price at 8005.

Note

Upper channel trendline hit. Bulls could take a break here.

Note

130 broke... On to inverse head and shoulders target.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out hear at 130.12.

Note

15.5% profit on this swing here. Even more with scalping along the way. Will watch price action here. I may close out this idea and start a new one.

Trade closed: target reached

Looks like bulls might keep going here.Going to watch price action and bear volume. Previous resistance points of 125.8 and 126.91 might be good re-entry targets if selling persists.

Trade active

Scaling in buys between 128.51 and 125

Note

Looks like a local falling wedge has formed pointing back to the 126.91 previous resistance point. Typically, these will break up between 50-80% of the way through the pattern.

Note

Moved buys under 127 up and scaling between 127 and 129.

Note

Correction: Scaling between 127 and 129.5

Note

Larger falling wedge has formed, along with a ascending broadening wedge which indicates should eventually move back to at least 130.5. Unless the bulls or bears get aggressive here, this would be the expected price action.

Note

Bulls got aggressive. Normally ABW gets three touches.

Note

Larger Ascending Broadening wedge forming. If it pulls back it should touch the lower trend line a 3rd time and should move back to and break the point where it started at 131.35, and should move on to the inverse head and shoulders target of 133.2. Bulls however are being aggressive and bears have yet to unload. This is crypto though and anything can happen.

Note

Bulls kept going. Be on the look out for the following potential scenario: Inverse head and shoulders target hits, price pulls back and forms a diamond.

Trade closed: target reached

Took profit at 133.2. Watching price action for re-entry.

Note

No diamond, just kept going. Next TP is 137.12, with one falling at 138.14. However order book suggests there will be heavy resistance getting there.

Note

Psychological resistance at 135 broke. Testing the 137-138 resistance now. Upon breaking should move to the 144.55 target.

Note

Took profit at 137.5

Trade closed manually

Trade active

Reentered at 135. Tight stop in case selling continues.

Note

Updating stop to market price (136.37)

Trade closed: stop reached

Note

Can't say for sure, but this is feeling a bit toppy. Protecting profits here.

Note

Dump avoided.

Trade active

Scaling buys between 127-132.5

Trade closed: stop reached

Trailing stop hit.

Trade active

Long here at 131.8 with tight stop. A retest of the high should be in play. Head and should looks to be rejected buy we still need to make sure it doesn't bust.

Trade closed: stop reached

Trailing stop hit at 134.70

Trade active

Buy back at 134.

Trade closed: stop reached

Trailing stop hit at 134.89

Note

Buy back at 134.05

Note

LTC being held up by BTC. Another chance to by a dip.

Trade active

BTC wicking below its rising wedge trendline. Expect a pullback here if breaks.

Trade closed manually

Closing out at same price. Gong to wait on BTC here...

Trade active

BTC bouncing, long with tight stop at 133.5

Trade closed manually

And there goes bitcoin again. Closing out before LTC follows.

Note

BTC fell out of the rising wedge to form a larger rising wedge. Looks like it still needs a little more down or sideways consolidation to establish an uptrend channel with parallel resistance lines.

Note

Would scale in buys here but BTC still not quite there yet.

Note

Quite possible just a little sideways chop.

Trade active

Scaling in buys between 129 and 127. BTC shouldn't have much further down.

Trade closed manually

Took profits at 130.14. Might bounce further but knowing LTC likes to retest lows, play it safe and catch the retest

Trade active

Going long at 128. Tight stop, sell-off may not be over.

Note

Scaling addition buys between 126.91 and 128. Expecting bitcoin to bounce between 7237.2 and 7250.

Note

Correction. Expecting BTC bounce between 7237.2 and 7269

Note

BTC bouncing. If it doesn't hold, i'll exit.

Trade closed manually

BTC dumping, decent size sells too.

Note

BTC bouncing again, LTC formed a falling wedge. Watching for a breakout to go long.

Note

LTC long 128.5 on breakout.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out 130.98

Note

Looking for a diamond to form.

Note

Price targets for a breakout if a diamond forms.

Note

Price targets for a breakout if a diamond forms, with price lines.

Note

GDAX hasa little buy wall at 128.75 so a bounce there to could form this diamond.

Note

LTC and BTC on diamond watch.

Note

Fell out the bottom. Watching for a potential partial decline. Breaking 115.5 would imply continuation to 110.03.

Note

How low will she go... hitting 1.618 fib extension, but diamond target says 110.03 is the target.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/o0bFfsFT.png

Note

Expecting a little dead cat and sideways chop here before more down, as LTC is hitting the 1.618 extension. Watching price action for a potential bottoming pattern though. Could be an opportunity for a scalp.

Trade active

Going long at 114.5, for a scalp.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out at 115.1

Note

Trying to put in a local bottom here and price target a few dollar short of anticipated but the Jan. 20th pre-crash fractal overlaid on the current hourly could indicate we have more down here.

Note

Another view with Highs and lows better matched. Could get really nasty if this fractal plays out again.

alexhiggins732

Also on:

Related publications

LTC Forming Potential Diamond for 10% swing.

by alexhiggins732

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

alexhiggins732

Also on:

Related publications

LTC Forming Potential Diamond for 10% swing.

by alexhiggins732