Markets have been understandably battered over the last weeks. Current conditions are why I've generally been cautious about trading, and not getting married to long positions. As I explained in my last Litecoin analysis, things are precarious. The good thing is, I got out of my trades with a little bit of profit and no losses. The bad thing is, entering long right now is a bit scary. We cannot predict economic conditions. Instead, we can use sentiment. Sentiment for altcoins is totally in the gutter right now. Based on this alone, a bounce makes sense.
On the weekly chart, Litecoin is (so far) holding the 50 and 100 moving averages, while it broke below the 200. To look bullish on bigger timeframes, price needs to at least stabilize here and begin slowly moving up to allow the MA structure to bullishly support price (a weekly golden cross would be a start).
This play is simple - buying at support here between $86-94 and selling at resistance, near $106-107 (conservatively). If price makes it back up there, I will observe conditions to determine whether an additional leg up seems likely. If price is rejected heavily up there, it could point to another leg down. I'm also watching whether Bitcoin can break back above its 50 and 100 day moving averages. Litecoin is unlikely to have any explosive ATH moves if Bitcoin cannot at least get back above $90K and stay there for a while, I think.
On the downside, taking out the $80 level would set up price to fall back towards $50-66, and it may take a long while to recover. I may stop myself out if that happens and aim to rebuy near $66.
Litecoin has experienced steady (though not explosive) growth. This seems somewhat attractive to me when it comes to crypto. While I wouldn't be surprised to see this entire market fade in the future and be forgotten as an investment, this one at least sees some steady user growth.
This post is to show that even though I remain largely bearish on crypto, I am open to trading opportunities that present themselves, even if they are narrow in scope and focus on one cryptocurrency.
This is not meant as financial advice, but for speculation and entertainment only!
Thanks for reading :)
-Victor Cobra
On the weekly chart, Litecoin is (so far) holding the 50 and 100 moving averages, while it broke below the 200. To look bullish on bigger timeframes, price needs to at least stabilize here and begin slowly moving up to allow the MA structure to bullishly support price (a weekly golden cross would be a start).
This play is simple - buying at support here between $86-94 and selling at resistance, near $106-107 (conservatively). If price makes it back up there, I will observe conditions to determine whether an additional leg up seems likely. If price is rejected heavily up there, it could point to another leg down. I'm also watching whether Bitcoin can break back above its 50 and 100 day moving averages. Litecoin is unlikely to have any explosive ATH moves if Bitcoin cannot at least get back above $90K and stay there for a while, I think.
On the downside, taking out the $80 level would set up price to fall back towards $50-66, and it may take a long while to recover. I may stop myself out if that happens and aim to rebuy near $66.
Litecoin has experienced steady (though not explosive) growth. This seems somewhat attractive to me when it comes to crypto. While I wouldn't be surprised to see this entire market fade in the future and be forgotten as an investment, this one at least sees some steady user growth.
This post is to show that even though I remain largely bearish on crypto, I am open to trading opportunities that present themselves, even if they are narrow in scope and focus on one cryptocurrency.
This is not meant as financial advice, but for speculation and entertainment only!
Thanks for reading :)
-Victor Cobra
Trade active
Bought at $87.50 and $93.50Trade closed: stop reached
Stopping myself out here, minimal loss since I had an entry also at $87.50. Judging entirely on Bitcoin here: Downtrend not breached, strong rejection, possible lower test coming up. Stocks also have failed to really get above pre-election levels. Note
Ended up re-opening this morning around $94. Not as great an entry as I had before, but in assessing PA, it does seem that price wants to test some liquidity above first, even if there is eventually another leg down. Would hate to be out of position if this goes back to $140 :P Note
Stopped myself out at break-even. Will re-assess and update if I decide to re-enter. Flip-flopping is annoying, but I'm not seeing the strength I ideally would have liked for this to be a major bottom. Note
Re-entered around $82. If it drops below $78ish I may consider that my stop - or stop myself at break even. I think this is the last chance for a bit of an exit rally. Bitcoin did not make new lows on stock market open. Things can obviously change throughout the day though. Note
Stopped out yet again around $84.50. Of course, this $80 support can hold again….but things really look ready to fall off a cliff. Especially with XRP still above $2. Insane. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.