Does SPX vs PMI divergence signal upcoming recession?
No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence.
So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.
Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession
(This post is in response to some comments I received)
So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.
Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession
(This post is in response to some comments I received)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.