MARI PROBABLY IN WAVE '' 4 '' - LONG

This is in continuation to our ongoing tracking of MARI C or 3 wave structure.

If the wave count is correct then we are in the 4th wave of a bigger C or 3 wave, as wave 4 can be any corrective patterns it is hard to predict them. They can be sharp or complex and can be frustrating at times.Currently the wave structure look smooth and it doesn't seem like that it will get complex but you never know what market will do.

We will buy long positions once price reach our buy zone range 624 - 610, however if the sentiments get very bullish prices might not even get to this range and start rising for the 5th red wave but we should not act greedy chasing every move.
If you are an aggressive trader you can enter long positions as the over all direction is up but we will wait for the price to come into our buy zone range 624 - 610 or touch/breach the below yellow trendline.

Let see how this plays, Good Luck !

Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Note

Good morning everyone,

Most probably prices will enter our buy zone and will start rising again but as I've told many times before wave 4 can become complex if they like therefore patience is needed to trade this move.

Trade setup:

Enter price range: 624 - 610

T1: 666.23
T2: 670-677

Note: We are not placing stop loss at the moment because MARI has very strong fundamentals and promising returns therefore we are not worried about market reversals, we will only add stop loss once price starts moving in our favor. Those who still want to add a stop loss should add a stop loss at 574.90.

Trade active

Buy zone reached.

Bought shares at 624, will add more to our positions near 618-611 level

Note

Update:

If our wave count is correct then prices will go up and upside potential will be clarified with volume however as 5th waves can truncate, we are trading this with a cautious setup. we are not being greedy here and will sell 50% of our holding on 666.23 last wave high.

Prices can go towards 700 levels as well but the most we are eyeing for is 677. Alternate scenario of downside will gain confidence if prices will go below 600 till then we are bullish.

Note

Prices have moved to 650 sharply and we might not get to add more positions, the only scenario for adding position is if 4th wave becomes a triangle then only prices will return back to 624 area but reaching 618 has very low probability.

Will enjoy the trade with the positions we have for now and use the capital to add more positions in POL.

Note

With reference to my previous published IDEA of MARI where I discussed about volume between both the bigger waves A or 1 & wave C or 3 to determine either this is a wave C or 3.

Volume is still under the average volume of Wave A or 1, if the average volume remains below 5.56 million at the end of the entire wave marked by teal color, We will mark it as wave C and incase if it ends higher we can mark it as wave 3

Also prices will reach 700 - 720 level providing confidence as wave 3 till then we are sticking with our wave C count, keep an eye on the volume.

Average Volume:

Wave A or 1 = 5.56 million

Wave C or 3 = 2.36 million (till yesterday)

Note

Good morning everyone,

Placing our orders early :)

T1: 666.23
T2: 670-677

Trade closed: target reached

Mamma Mia!

Bulls are you kidding me, hahaha :)

T1: 666.23
Profit per share: PKR 42.23

T2: 670-677 (My trade closed at 676)
Profit per share: PKR 52

All positions closed, 7.55% gain on the investment in 2 days :)

Note

Update:

As per my earlier update above, prices need to reach 700-720 level to give us confidence for wave 3, prices have entered this range. If price goes beyond 718.50 it will highly increase wave 3 count chance over wave C especially if the volume starts support it as well.

Whatever the case maybe wave 3 or C, if our wave count is correct then we will trade long positions once the next retracement down as wave 4 (teal color) is completed. For the time being let the 5 wave (red color) complete.

Note

Update:

Most probably in wave 4 of wave 5, prices will reach 677 level and move back up to 706.60 levels. Aggressive traders can take a small nib again if they like too.

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Update:

Below is how I'm looking at this 4th wave, either it will play like the blue or green line I've marked :)

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Update:

If prices do not break the last low of 683 and starts rising, it will reach 713 level. if the last leg up is a failure then prices will not break above 706.60 mark and retrace back sharply down.

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Update:

Most probably 5th wave of wave 5 has started which can reach 719 - 722 level or even 741, Major resistance area is around 718 level therefore prices might retrace back from there marking the end of our entire red impulse wave up.
If the count is correct we will reach 718 area early morning tomorrow and then the sell off should start.

I will publish new idea of MARI with updated buy zone for Wave 4 (teal wave) soon, till then we are concentrating on our POL (Pakistan Oil Fields) trade which got activated today.

Note

Good morning everyone,

Those who have taken a trade in 5th wave should place their targets order early, as prices should reach the 718 during first hour

Note

Update:

718 area reached at opening :)

KayJay

Disclaimer

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KayJay