Long

Updated

MARI PROBABLY IN WAVE '' 4 '' ( TEAL COLOR )- LONG

This is in continuation to our ongoing tracking of MARI C or 3 wave structure.

If the wave count is correct then we are in wave 4 of wave C or 3 which will most probably reach 661 - 627 range near which I've marked the buy zone. Trading wave 5 is a little tricky because there are multiple factors at play here therefore we will use cautious approach to trade this.

Firstly predicating completion of wave 4 is very difficult, secondly chances of 5th wave failure are also present which means prices might not make a new high, thirdly is the proportion between the 2 and 4 wave (marked in teal color) in which case prices will not even reach the buy zone and will start rising from 680 level up.

So here is how we gonna trade this, since we have already made profits from the last 2 waves of MARI that I published. We will not be taking full positions here but just a small chunk, we will just invest 25% of our investment here and will only enter long positions between 654 - 632 range .

Although we have marked the buy range from 661 but we will only enter between 654 - 632 zone, if we don't get that price we are not trading this last leg up. Below 632 will increase the chance of 5th wave failure and if prices go below 611 then our entire wave count will get weaken.

Trade setup:

Entry price: 654 - 632

Stop loss: We are not marking any stop loss here because MARI has very strong fundamentals therefore we are bullish in it for the long term and since we our only taking 25% portion of our investment on this trade therefore we will hold them for our long term target of 1350 - 1500 just incase if the market goes against us.

Target: Will update after completion of wave 4

Let see how this plays, Good Luck!

Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

Note

Good morning everyone, hope you had a great weekend :)

Volume is still under the average volume of Wave A or 1, average volume should surpass 5.56 million for us to mark this entire wave as 3 confidently till then we are sticking with our count of wave C

Average Volume:

Wave A or 1 = 5.56 million

Wave C or 3 = 3.16 million

Note

Update:

Prices will reach our buy zone area today or tomorrow therefore make sure to place your orders early. Alternately if the bulls jump in then prices won't reach our target area and will start to rise from here, which is highly unlikely.

Note

Update:

Most probably prices will reach our buy zone today, placing my buy order early in the day. Let see if our trade get active today.

Note

Good morning everyone :)

Prices are consolidating nicely, most probably prices will reach our buy zone today or tomorrow. However prices might touch 702 - 706 level first before retracing to the buy zone.

Alternately prices might never reach our buy zone and will start to rise above, We will only trade if prices reach our buy zone.

Note

Update:

Prices have reached the 701 level, if our wave count is correct then wave b of an ABC correction down is almost finished. Prices will have to go below 688 to give confidence to wave c, once price goes below the 675 level we will mark the wave as c and will look forward for our anticipated buy zone.
Alternately prices will have to remain above the 688 level making new higher highs.

Marking waves on minor chart are prone to more errors but below is how we are reading this correction unfold.

Trade active

Buy zone reached.

Bought shares at an average price of 646, will update targets once completion of wave c is confirmed.

We are not using stop loss on this trade as we are long term investors on MARI.

Note:
Prices fell sharply as Crude oil has fallen in the international market and as I've already mentioned about its correlation to MARI & POL therefore if prices of MARI go below 599 then it will invalidate this as 4th wave

Note

Update:

If our wave count is correct then wave c of ABC correction is almost over, most probably prices should hold 630-620 level.
We will update about the targets once price go above 658 and then 666 level giving confidence to our wave count

Note

Update:

Price went above 658 giving us a little confidence in our current wave count, prices will most probably retrace back to 630 - 620 level before rising again. Alternately if prices goes into a free fall then it should be with high volume.

Since we are in the 5th wave of a bigger ABC correction (our preferred count), we will take a cautious approach in profit taking on this trade as the 5th waves can truncate.

Targets:

T1: 722 - 725 ( will close 70% of our positions )
T2: 740 - 750 ( will close 30% of our positions )

T3: 760 - 780 ( we are not eyeing for this as its highly unlikely but not out of question)

Note

Good morning everyone :)

We are placing are orders early in the morning because prices might spike up in the early hours and start the downtrend quickly.

Note

We have modified our profit picking targets a little. Since todays upper limit is 720.51, we have placed our sell order at 720.50 (30% position), if we do not reach 720.50 today then tomorrow we will go with our original targets setup.

Note

Update:

Volume is still under the average volume of Wave A or 1, average volume should surpass 5.56 million for us to mark this entire wave as 3 confidently till then we are sticking with our count of wave C

Average Volume:

Wave A or 1 = 5.56 million

Wave C or 3 = 2.81 million

Note

Update:

As per our crude oil weekly chart shared, Oil is in a free fall now and as I've mentioned many times before about the correlation between Oil prices and Oil & gas exploration sector, all bearish scenarios in POL & MARI have more weightage now.
Crude oil lost $ 3.63 yesterday and keeping that in mind we are brining in our stop loss in this trade setup because possibility of a 5 wave truncation has increased which mean MARI prices will not go above 722.80 but we are not moving are targets.

Below is how we will use a cautious stop loss approach for this trade:

Current Stop loss: 659

Next Stop loss: 680 (once prices reach 699 before taking out our stop loss of 659 then move your stop loss to 680)

Targets remain the same:

T1: 722 - 725 ( will close 70% of our positions )
T2: 740 - 750 ( will close 30% of our positions )

Note

Update:

Prices have been consolidating whole day and we should reach our target before closing. Below is a micro level wave analysis which I don't personally like nor recommend because you rarely get them right but I'm still sharing this just for info.

Keep your stops placed at 659 for now.

Note

Update:

Prices have reached 699 level therefore we our trailing our stops up with a little modification to our suggestion shared earlier of a 680 for the next stop however after looking at the 4th wave structure we have adjusted our stop loss to 678

Stop loss moved to 678.

Note

Update:

Prices did not reach our targets today, so hopefully tomorrow we will reach it.

Our current stop is 678 which we will move up a little to 681.81 once price reach 701.61

Next Stop loss: 681.81

Note

Good morning everyone,

Most probably we will reach our targets today, just don't forget to trail your stops till then.

Note

Stop loss raised to 681.81

Note

Update:

Our current stop is 681.81 which we will move up a little to 688 once price reach 720

Next Stop loss: 688

Note

Update:

Since 5th wave can truncate therefore we are modifying our targets a little

Targets:

T1: 720 (will close 70% of our positions)
T2: 730 - 740 (will close 30% of our positions)

Note

Update:

Looking at the wave structure on the minor timeframe, we are most probably in wave 4 and next will be a last leg up,
which means we might reach 720 target however chances for reaching 730 - 740 area are slim i.e. if this minor wave count is correct.
Alternately this 5th wave might turn out to be a wave 1 of 5 and will get extended which is highly unlikely because in that scenario 760-780 and more upside will open up

Since there's always a higher chance of getting your wave count incorrect on minor charts and also keeping in mind that we need to protect the downside. we are raising our stop loss to 688.

We will raise our stop loss to 705 (for the remaining 30% positions) once price fills our T1 (70% position)

Stop loss: 688

Note

Update:

Below are 3 wave scenarios that we are looking at on the minor wave structure

Green wave shows a probability of reaching 730 level
Red wave shows a probability of reaching 750-760 level
Blue wave will probably take our stop loss out at 688

Note

Update:

Most probably I won't be online tomorrow for the whole day to guide you thru live trade, so for those who are following stick to the trade setup

Place orders at market open, first target is 720 ( close 70% positions) and let the 30% positions run with trailing stop loss.

Current stop loss: 688

Next Stop loss: 700 (raise your stop loss to 700 once price reach 720)

Next Stop loss: 720 (if prices continue to rise & reach 750 level or you just close all your positions at 730-750 range)

Note

Update:

Looking at the current minor wave formation and the volume, the green wave scenario shared earlier is highly unlikely to develop now which leaves us to red or blue wave scenario. Now if this wants to unfold as the red wave scenario then price should rise with a very high volume making a couple of big green candlesticks up reaching 750 level.
Alternately once price goes below 688 which also should be with high volume, will take out our stop loss and will confirm start of the downtrend.

Since our entry price is 646 as mentioned earlier therefore incase our stop loss gets taken out, we will still make fair money out of this trade.

Note

Update:

Since prices have not moved up or down as expected therefore we have gone thru some more alternate probabilities and have decided to modify our stop loss a little.
This is due to the risk/reward ratios of our alternate scenarios which hints that if our new stop loss is not taken out then there's a high probability that we can reach 750 level.

Also if our stop loss does gets taken out we will still make a gross profit of 5.42%

Modified trade setup:

Stop loss: 681

T1: 722- 735 range (will close 50% of our positions)
T2: 750 - 770 range (will close 50% of our positions)

Note

Update:

Below is the alternate chart which is more concentrated with ABC waves. Remember waves analysis helps us catch higher probability trades and as Warren Buffet said "no one in the world can predict the market" therefore modification/adjustments to your wave count is very crucial as they unfold.

Note

Good morning everyone :)

There's a high chance that our stop will be taken out at the opening, if not we are sticking with our targets.

Trade closed: stop reached

Update:

Our stop loss has been taken out at 681, however we have made 5.41% gross profit in 7 days with this trade.

Entry price : 646
Exit price : 681
Profit @ share: 35
Gross profit: 5.41%

KayJay

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KayJay