2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oil
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Huge day for the bears. Both bull trend lines I had on my daily chart are now broken. 70 should be bigger resistance for now though. I expect the market to go sideways 69.5 - 71 for more time before another impulse. If bears manage to get below 69.5 tomorrow, that would bring 67 in play and really bad for the bulls. Neutral inside given range after such climactic selling but will join either side on strong momentum.
comment: Very interesting day for the bears. We broke below the triangle and are at the huge support price 70. Bulls need to step in big here or next stop is 67. If bulls come around big time and bears fail to keep it below 72, they could face a bear trap and another move back up inside the trading range. Big day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle now)
key levels: 70 - 73
bull case: Bulls are in do or die mode tomorrow. Fail at 70 and we will go 67 next. If they could generate strong buying, bears could fear a trap and exit longs. Most reasonable outlook is some sideways to up movement tomorrow. Bulls need anything above 72.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are now in full control of the market and they want to break below 70 and retest the December and January close/open prices around 67. Oil has not traded below 70 since June and there only for 2 days. Bears would need a big surprise again to break the 70 price. On the 1h chart there is a clean bear channel, which would go as high as 73.5 as of now. That channel is my preferred pattern for now.
Invalidation is above 73.
short term: Neutral. Expecting some sideways to up movement unless bears print a 15m bear bar below 70. Bears in control.
medium-long term: Triangle is dead. 70 has to hold or we might be in a new bear trend to 60 or lower. Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting the double top above 74. Had to get short latest below 73 when the 15m or 1h bear bar closed.
tl;dr
Oil - Huge day for the bears. Both bull trend lines I had on my daily chart are now broken. 70 should be bigger resistance for now though. I expect the market to go sideways 69.5 - 71 for more time before another impulse. If bears manage to get below 69.5 tomorrow, that would bring 67 in play and really bad for the bulls. Neutral inside given range after such climactic selling but will join either side on strong momentum.
comment: Very interesting day for the bears. We broke below the triangle and are at the huge support price 70. Bulls need to step in big here or next stop is 67. If bulls come around big time and bears fail to keep it below 72, they could face a bear trap and another move back up inside the trading range. Big day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle now)
key levels: 70 - 73
bull case: Bulls are in do or die mode tomorrow. Fail at 70 and we will go 67 next. If they could generate strong buying, bears could fear a trap and exit longs. Most reasonable outlook is some sideways to up movement tomorrow. Bulls need anything above 72.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are now in full control of the market and they want to break below 70 and retest the December and January close/open prices around 67. Oil has not traded below 70 since June and there only for 2 days. Bears would need a big surprise again to break the 70 price. On the 1h chart there is a clean bear channel, which would go as high as 73.5 as of now. That channel is my preferred pattern for now.
Invalidation is above 73.
short term: Neutral. Expecting some sideways to up movement unless bears print a 15m bear bar below 70. Bears in control.
medium-long term: Triangle is dead. 70 has to hold or we might be in a new bear trend to 60 or lower. Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting the double top above 74. Had to get short latest below 73 when the 15m or 1h bear bar closed.
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