Good Evening and I hope you are well.
#mcl1 - wti crude oil futures
comment: Strong momentum for the bears but I have zero interest in selling where all bears for the past 2 years lost money. Not much more to say about this. Wait for strong buying and join but market will likely do some more testing of 60 first and then sideways before we can go higher. Anything above 63 is a bull surprise and could lead to a squeeze.
current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart
key levels: 59 - 63
bull case: Bulls are at prior big support but right now we are still in the spike down phase. Market likely needs some time sideways before we can try a bounce. Bulls would do good if they stay above the 2023-12 low and keep it a higher low. Targets for bulls are the bull trend line break retest around 63.7 and the next breakout retest 2025-03 low at 65.
Invalidation is below 59.
bear case: Bears had the news crash down and now what? Are they strong enough to make lower lows below 60? I highly doubt it until it happens. Only pattern is an ugly expanding triangle and we are at the very bottom of it. Bears don’t have much reasons to sell down here but technicals only go so far for commodities. I will sit on hands for this.
Invalidation is above 63.
short term: Neutral for now but I will never sell down here since we have not traded this low for 2 years and every time we went below 65 bears lost.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Down at support again around 60. Market has not traded below 59 since 2023 and until it happens it’s a bad trade betting on it. It’s a multi-year trading range and below 64 bulls made money, not bears.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted broken shallow bull trend line and just removed things
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.