Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: The past week we saw 3 tries by the bulls to push above 63 and they found no acceptance. I got trapped once because the spike looked so strong but it got zero follow-through. Markets will only try one direction so many times before they try the other one.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 55 - 63
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 60 or risk that the market tries back down to 56 or lower. If they can go sideways inside the given range, the better and if we hit 63 enough, it will break. Problem for them is, they tried couple of times now and the odds that 60 breaks are bigger than the breakout above 63. Friday was strong enough to expect not a big bear day on Monday but I am not eager to buy this.
Invalidation is below 59.8.
bear case: Bears need a stronger break below 59.8 for more downside and they need to make a lower high below 62. That’s the whole story. They are slightly favored since we are at the top of the current range that has been going on for almost 2 months now. They have defended the bear gap up to 64.5 more than 5 times.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Neutral. Shorts closer to 63 are good or on a clear break below 59.8. No interest in buying up here unless bulls do something big above 64.4 and break the bear trend line.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Need a clear break of the trading range 54 - 64 before we can come up with new targets. Bear trend is valid until the trend line breaks.
comment: The past week we saw 3 tries by the bulls to push above 63 and they found no acceptance. I got trapped once because the spike looked so strong but it got zero follow-through. Markets will only try one direction so many times before they try the other one.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 55 - 63
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 60 or risk that the market tries back down to 56 or lower. If they can go sideways inside the given range, the better and if we hit 63 enough, it will break. Problem for them is, they tried couple of times now and the odds that 60 breaks are bigger than the breakout above 63. Friday was strong enough to expect not a big bear day on Monday but I am not eager to buy this.
Invalidation is below 59.8.
bear case: Bears need a stronger break below 59.8 for more downside and they need to make a lower high below 62. That’s the whole story. They are slightly favored since we are at the top of the current range that has been going on for almost 2 months now. They have defended the bear gap up to 64.5 more than 5 times.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Neutral. Shorts closer to 63 are good or on a clear break below 59.8. No interest in buying up here unless bulls do something big above 64.4 and break the bear trend line.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Need a clear break of the trading range 54 - 64 before we can come up with new targets. Bear trend is valid until the trend line breaks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.