No reason to panic yet, but there might be one if 461 doesn't hold.
This has the same setup that I've seen in any major decline following an upthrust/blow off top. Here are my expectations:
Bearish Scenario
- Gap down to 430-445 Tuesday morning (2/20)
- Dead cat bounce to test 456-462 for resistance (point rejection level = 461.53)
** IF rejected, then it opens the door for an explosive drop to at least 396-418.
Point target = 411 by 2/23/2024
~If the 396-418 range does not hold as support, it could crash to as low as 335 (downside targets if support breaks = 378, 362, 335)
* If this occurs it will bottom around 2/28-3/1 and present a buying opportunity.
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Bullish/Neutral scenarios (both less likely than the bearish scenario)
1) 461 holds as support: this would result MDB becoming range bound between 460-486 going into Earnings 3/7
2) 461 doesn't hold but it finds support at 428 (AB==CD), then it would test 461 for resistance. IF that does not hold as resistance then it will attempt a new high above 509 (likely would only make it to 486).
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Summary:
- not expecting crash but its possible
- looking to enter Mar 1 430 puts if we get gap down followed by rejection at or before 461, target 411
- this downside will be healthy for MDB mid-term, needs it to test 600s in the future