Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Same here, 2 daily bars engulfing 2 months price action and market tested the upper bull wedge line for a new ath. We are close enough to 6000 that we can expect it to get hit, everything else would be a huge surprise to me. Can you short 6000? Not blindly, market mostly needs a double top or more at these levels before it gives up on it. If bears get below the 1h 20ema, I start thinking about not being bullish anymore, until then it’s peak euphoria.
comment: Huge day for the bulls, right to or through the upper bull wedge line, depending on how you want to draw it. 6000 is the target and bulls will not stop until we have printed it. Bears can’t seriously expect this to stop before so that is why most of today's price action was bears giving up. We need some time around 6000 to find out how many bulls want to buy that price or if we see an immediate profit taking and reversal down. For now the bull wedge is still alive and the best pattern we have. 6000 would be a bit of an overshoot and those can reverse very fast and they like to test down to the other extreme, which would be 5800ish.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5730 - 6000
bull case: Bulls want 6000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has not touched the 1h 20ema since yesterday’s US open. As long as it is not broken, only look for longs until we hit 6000.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears don’t have much. Complete giveup from since yesterday and they will try again at 6000. If they somehow manage to print a decent 1h bear bar below the 20ema tomorrow, their case would get better. For now they don’t have one.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Max bullish for 6000 as long as 1h 20ema holds.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Same here, 2 daily bars engulfing 2 months price action and market tested the upper bull wedge line for a new ath. We are close enough to 6000 that we can expect it to get hit, everything else would be a huge surprise to me. Can you short 6000? Not blindly, market mostly needs a double top or more at these levels before it gives up on it. If bears get below the 1h 20ema, I start thinking about not being bullish anymore, until then it’s peak euphoria.
comment: Huge day for the bulls, right to or through the upper bull wedge line, depending on how you want to draw it. 6000 is the target and bulls will not stop until we have printed it. Bears can’t seriously expect this to stop before so that is why most of today's price action was bears giving up. We need some time around 6000 to find out how many bulls want to buy that price or if we see an immediate profit taking and reversal down. For now the bull wedge is still alive and the best pattern we have. 6000 would be a bit of an overshoot and those can reverse very fast and they like to test down to the other extreme, which would be 5800ish.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5730 - 6000
bull case: Bulls want 6000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has not touched the 1h 20ema since yesterday’s US open. As long as it is not broken, only look for longs until we hit 6000.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears don’t have much. Complete giveup from since yesterday and they will try again at 6000. If they somehow manage to print a decent 1h bear bar below the 20ema tomorrow, their case would get better. For now they don’t have one.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Max bullish for 6000 as long as 1h 20ema holds.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.