2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-m
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Very similar to nasdaq so if you are a regular reader, I won’t bore you with a long talk about trading ranges. Bears showed some strength from bar 36 - 53 but bulls are still in BTFD mode and as long as that is profitable, this is what they will continue to do. Bulls are in full control and found acceptance at the highs today.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5320 - 5373
bull case: I think the first time I calculated the 5560 target for sp500 was in February or something. I did not believe we could get there but here we are. If bulls get another break above the current ath and 5400, we can absolutely get there rather sooner than later. Bulls will continue to try buying every dip and it’s just a matter of bears giving up again. Bull trend lines are alive and well and there is no reason for bulls to exit longs. I think they want to keep it above 5350 or bears might think they have a chance.
Invalidation is below 5320.
bear case: Bears tried and failed, twice. Two-legged moves inside trading ranges are the norm, so everything was in order today for the bulls. Bears are in pain and if bulls can get another strong momentum rally above 5373, we can see capitulation again. If bears manage to somehow break the drawn bull trend line and get strong closes below 5350, we could see 5300.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: Full bull until clear trend-line break and prices below 5350.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 5370 was rejected many times today, was good for short scalps. Other than that, very tricky day. Buying bar 49 was reasonable but bar 53 was a very big surprise which got many stops. Losing is part of this game, accept it and make peace with it.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Very similar to nasdaq so if you are a regular reader, I won’t bore you with a long talk about trading ranges. Bears showed some strength from bar 36 - 53 but bulls are still in BTFD mode and as long as that is profitable, this is what they will continue to do. Bulls are in full control and found acceptance at the highs today.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5320 - 5373
bull case: I think the first time I calculated the 5560 target for sp500 was in February or something. I did not believe we could get there but here we are. If bulls get another break above the current ath and 5400, we can absolutely get there rather sooner than later. Bulls will continue to try buying every dip and it’s just a matter of bears giving up again. Bull trend lines are alive and well and there is no reason for bulls to exit longs. I think they want to keep it above 5350 or bears might think they have a chance.
Invalidation is below 5320.
bear case: Bears tried and failed, twice. Two-legged moves inside trading ranges are the norm, so everything was in order today for the bulls. Bears are in pain and if bulls can get another strong momentum rally above 5373, we can see capitulation again. If bears manage to somehow break the drawn bull trend line and get strong closes below 5350, we could see 5300.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: Full bull until clear trend-line break and prices below 5350.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 5370 was rejected many times today, was good for short scalps. Other than that, very tricky day. Buying bar 49 was reasonable but bar 53 was a very big surprise which got many stops. Losing is part of this game, accept it and make peace with it.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.