2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session.
Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways.
Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
Smaller tf = trading range
key levels: 5500 - 5550
bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below.
Invalidation is above 5550.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session.
Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways.
Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
Smaller tf = trading range
key levels: 5500 - 5550
bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below.
Invalidation is above 5550.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
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