2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks.
Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5300 - 5600
bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
overall market comment
What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks.
Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5300 - 5600
bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
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