2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5385
bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5350.
bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5385
bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5350.
bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
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