Fundamentals of Elliott Wave Theory + Briefly about the types
This wave theory is based on the psychology of groups of individuals and statistical patterns.
Every market decision is generated by meaningful information and simultaneously generates meaningful information. Each transaction being a result, becoming known to investors, joins the chain of causes of people's behavior (not news drives prices).
The price movement in the same direction as the trend of a larger scale develops in 5 waves. Correction - reaction against a larger trend, developes in 3 waves
Imagine a mango plantation. At the initial period, there is a bullish trend on the plantation stock exchange, which is obvious to the rational majority of mangoes (1/4 of the 3rd wave or 1/3 of the 3rd wave). Because of the confidence that tomorrow will be better, some very rational fruits began to borrow a little in order to earn a little more. This action of very rational fruits caused a faster increase in stock prices (because there is more demand). After learning about the "easy" success, the less rational mango decided to do the same, but since it is not very rational, it invested more. This pattern continued to the most irrational fruits. At the same time, with an increase in the circulation of capital (or monetary base), the borrowing rate falls (because there is a large supply of money in the market => corporations are valued more, they can issue more bonds => receive more money for business development (and not only)(This development is planned at a low rate => zombie corporations appear, and more risky projects are also being taken (not only by corporations, but also by people))). Spending by an average citizens also increased.
When speculation, fraud, financial crimes reach a noticeable scale, rational mangoes will start to short, other mangoes will think - Why is this rational mango shorting (the hypothesis of an efficient market)? => The 4th wave will begin (little by little the fruits will begin to notice what is happening).
When we reach the end of the 4th wave, the most irrational fruits begin to enter the market because of this, the 5th wave occurs ( the deceived themselves found pleasure in deception),
At the end of the 5th wave, most likely, some famous fruit economist would ask the fruit society - what's going on? => panic will begin, because everyone will suddenly want to short + "stops" will work => correction will begin.
Waves - more details
Diagonal triangles (wedges) are the only 5-wave structure aligned with the main trend within which wave 4 almost always invades the price territory of wave 1. In rare cases, a diagonal triangle may end with a truncation (form 3-3-3-3-3).The final diagonal triangles (Appear first of all in the 5th wave at those moments when the previous movement has gone too far and too fast)A small part of the final diagonal triangles appear in the wave C at the A-B-C models. In all cases, they are found in the final waves of larger models and indicate the exhaustion of a larger movement.
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)-three tapering variants (ascending, descending and symmetrical) and an expanding variant, reverse symmetrical. Triangles always occur in the position preceding the last of the acting waves in the model, the degree of which is one more, in addition, a triangle may appear as an acting model in a corrective combination, but even then it usually precedes the last acting wave in the model, the degree of which is one more than the degree of the corrective combination. When it appears on the stock market in the position of the 4th wave, then the fifth - fast -> protracted. Growing impulses of degrees above the intermediate, appearing after triangles in commodity markets, usually turn out to be the longest in the sequence.
Alternation — At the next appearance of a wave similar in nature, one should always expect a different form of it.
Depth of corrective waves - corrections tend to show a return of prices to the price range of the previous fourth wave ( a lesser degree), usually to the level of its end.
If the 5th wave of growth is stretched, then the subsequent correction will be sharp and will find support at the minimum level of the wave 2 of stretching (Sometimes the end of the correction, but in the some cases — the end of wave A => C wave).
Equality of waves (two waves in a 5-wave sequence will tend to equality in time and magnitude (unstretched).
Puncture of the upper boundary - If the volume has decreased, then the wave will end at the level of the upper boundary or will not reach it. If the volume is significant and the 5th wave approaches the upper trend line, a puncture is possible (near the puncture point, the 4th wave of a small degree can make a sideways movement).
In the investment field, it is more important to choose the moment to buy/short/sell than a certain paper. The wave principle is to some extent applicable to individual stocks, but counting waves for them is often confusing and has little practical significance (because the sea of drops owning registered shares is mass psychology, and stocks are one independent drops)(On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, 75% - up).
The best Elliott models are generated by important long-term breakdowns of stretched lateral movement models.
The impact of news
An important analytical question is not in the news, but in the importance that the market attaches to the news.((1 and 2 — fear and discouragement, 3 and 4 -favorable news, 5 — less favorable) at the market peak, the fundamental background remains rosy or even improves, but the market, despite this, turns down. Negative fundamental conditions begin to increase again after the correction has already passed a significant part of its path.
Practice
News — lag behind the market in time by one or two waves
Limitations of wave theory
Since many people see the same wave in different ways, we must share our knowledge and views with each other - it is necessary to become very rational fruits.
Every market decision is generated by meaningful information and simultaneously generates meaningful information. Each transaction being a result, becoming known to investors, joins the chain of causes of people's behavior (not news drives prices).
The price movement in the same direction as the trend of a larger scale develops in 5 waves. Correction - reaction against a larger trend, developes in 3 waves
Imagine a mango plantation. At the initial period, there is a bullish trend on the plantation stock exchange, which is obvious to the rational majority of mangoes (1/4 of the 3rd wave or 1/3 of the 3rd wave). Because of the confidence that tomorrow will be better, some very rational fruits began to borrow a little in order to earn a little more. This action of very rational fruits caused a faster increase in stock prices (because there is more demand). After learning about the "easy" success, the less rational mango decided to do the same, but since it is not very rational, it invested more. This pattern continued to the most irrational fruits. At the same time, with an increase in the circulation of capital (or monetary base), the borrowing rate falls (because there is a large supply of money in the market => corporations are valued more, they can issue more bonds => receive more money for business development (and not only)(This development is planned at a low rate => zombie corporations appear, and more risky projects are also being taken (not only by corporations, but also by people))). Spending by an average citizens also increased.
When speculation, fraud, financial crimes reach a noticeable scale, rational mangoes will start to short, other mangoes will think - Why is this rational mango shorting (the hypothesis of an efficient market)? => The 4th wave will begin (little by little the fruits will begin to notice what is happening).
When we reach the end of the 4th wave, the most irrational fruits begin to enter the market because of this, the 5th wave occurs ( the deceived themselves found pleasure in deception),
At the end of the 5th wave, most likely, some famous fruit economist would ask the fruit society - what's going on? => panic will begin, because everyone will suddenly want to short + "stops" will work => correction will begin.
Waves - more details
Diagonal triangles (wedges) are the only 5-wave structure aligned with the main trend within which wave 4 almost always invades the price territory of wave 1. In rare cases, a diagonal triangle may end with a truncation (form 3-3-3-3-3).The final diagonal triangles (Appear first of all in the 5th wave at those moments when the previous movement has gone too far and too fast)A small part of the final diagonal triangles appear in the wave C at the A-B-C models. In all cases, they are found in the final waves of larger models and indicate the exhaustion of a larger movement.
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)-three tapering variants (ascending, descending and symmetrical) and an expanding variant, reverse symmetrical. Triangles always occur in the position preceding the last of the acting waves in the model, the degree of which is one more, in addition, a triangle may appear as an acting model in a corrective combination, but even then it usually precedes the last acting wave in the model, the degree of which is one more than the degree of the corrective combination. When it appears on the stock market in the position of the 4th wave, then the fifth - fast -> protracted. Growing impulses of degrees above the intermediate, appearing after triangles in commodity markets, usually turn out to be the longest in the sequence.
Alternation — At the next appearance of a wave similar in nature, one should always expect a different form of it.
Depth of corrective waves - corrections tend to show a return of prices to the price range of the previous fourth wave ( a lesser degree), usually to the level of its end.
If the 5th wave of growth is stretched, then the subsequent correction will be sharp and will find support at the minimum level of the wave 2 of stretching (Sometimes the end of the correction, but in the some cases — the end of wave A => C wave).
Equality of waves (two waves in a 5-wave sequence will tend to equality in time and magnitude (unstretched).
Puncture of the upper boundary - If the volume has decreased, then the wave will end at the level of the upper boundary or will not reach it. If the volume is significant and the 5th wave approaches the upper trend line, a puncture is possible (near the puncture point, the 4th wave of a small degree can make a sideways movement).
In the investment field, it is more important to choose the moment to buy/short/sell than a certain paper. The wave principle is to some extent applicable to individual stocks, but counting waves for them is often confusing and has little practical significance (because the sea of drops owning registered shares is mass psychology, and stocks are one independent drops)(On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, 75% - up).
The best Elliott models are generated by important long-term breakdowns of stretched lateral movement models.
The impact of news
An important analytical question is not in the news, but in the importance that the market attaches to the news.((1 and 2 — fear and discouragement, 3 and 4 -favorable news, 5 — less favorable) at the market peak, the fundamental background remains rosy or even improves, but the market, despite this, turns down. Negative fundamental conditions begin to increase again after the correction has already passed a significant part of its path.
Practice
News — lag behind the market in time by one or two waves
Limitations of wave theory
- Low liquidity.
- Incidents not characteristic to the free market.
- Initially impossible business models
Since many people see the same wave in different ways, we must share our knowledge and views with each other - it is necessary to become very rational fruits.
Disclaimer
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