Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is in peak euphoria again but you would be buying at the very top on an Opex Friday. Like… Just dont. Enjoy your weekend. I expect a rather choppy session maybe even a deep pullback rather than closing the week on another green bar.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20600 - 22000
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and we are high enough, that they could easily get it next week. My count was likely wrong and W1 was not the spike from 16735 to 19388 but rather the leg from 17863 to 20277. That means we are in W3 and W4 is around the corner. I have many calculated targets around 23000 and as of now, there is no reason we can not get there. It’s a very tight bull channel upwards. Bears are not doing anything so the path of least resistance is up.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Bears need a miracle. That’s it. Best they can maybe get is a pullback to the bull trend line around 20700ish but I highly doubt that. If we print 21000 tomorrow, most bears would be wet and take their profits before letting them see burning away again. My assumption for tomorrow is a choppy session somewhere between 21000 - 21600.
Invalidation is above 21600.
short term: Neutral. Opex Friday, I made my money this week. Absolutely no need to throw it away tomorrow. Less interest in buying up here but bears are barely making money, so I’d rather sit on hands.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Longing the lower low below 21300 is the obvious choice. Market went sideways to up with higher lows for 4h. There were at least 4 big tails on the 15m chart which told the story.
comment: Market is in peak euphoria again but you would be buying at the very top on an Opex Friday. Like… Just dont. Enjoy your weekend. I expect a rather choppy session maybe even a deep pullback rather than closing the week on another green bar.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20600 - 22000
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and we are high enough, that they could easily get it next week. My count was likely wrong and W1 was not the spike from 16735 to 19388 but rather the leg from 17863 to 20277. That means we are in W3 and W4 is around the corner. I have many calculated targets around 23000 and as of now, there is no reason we can not get there. It’s a very tight bull channel upwards. Bears are not doing anything so the path of least resistance is up.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Bears need a miracle. That’s it. Best they can maybe get is a pullback to the bull trend line around 20700ish but I highly doubt that. If we print 21000 tomorrow, most bears would be wet and take their profits before letting them see burning away again. My assumption for tomorrow is a choppy session somewhere between 21000 - 21600.
Invalidation is above 21600.
short term: Neutral. Opex Friday, I made my money this week. Absolutely no need to throw it away tomorrow. Less interest in buying up here but bears are barely making money, so I’d rather sit on hands.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Longing the lower low below 21300 is the obvious choice. Market went sideways to up with higher lows for 4h. There were at least 4 big tails on the 15m chart which told the story.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.