Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Bulls owned the markets today but when you zoom out, almost all are still inside their given ranges, new ath or not. Sp500 and NQ are pumping while dax and dji are still looking more bearish than bullish on higher tf. The only interesting question now is, if bulls can get follow through tomorrow of if this was a buy vacuum to the obvious magnets and we will now see a nasty reversal. Since this rally is done by basically one stock, I do think the chances of a reversal are not as low as most think. For NQ my assumption is that this was a higher high major trend reversal and 19060/19100 could be the high. I see those chances much higher than a breakout above the bull wedge. But I’m very open to the possibility that the melt-up continues and NQ will go to 20000.
Commodities are still inside their trading ranges and nothing changed for them. Gold is inside the given range and Oil had the first green day after 5 down days.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Let’s use the daily chart here for my points. Very big bull bar today which confirmed the bull flag breakout from yesterday and we printed a new ath. Now what? We have the very big bull trend line which could lead to 19500 and the bull wedge which could make us reverse here. It was the fifth push up and a climactic one at that. I would only consider more longs here, if bears capitulate and we do not print red bars at all. If bears show up and enough bulls take profits, will see 18600 again soon.
current market cycle: trading range (yes, even with the new ath. if bulls get follow through, I’m obviously wrong about that)
key levels: 18200 - 19084
bull case: Bulls want follow through tomorrow to completely erase all bears and print 19400/19600. My line in the sand for them is 18950. If we drop below that price, I do think chances are better for a reversal than another break above.
Invalidation is below 18950.
bear case: Bears did not keep it below 18750 and we got higher prices as I expected, if bulls break above. Now bears capitulated today and we saw a buy vacuum to the old ath and printed a new one. I am not sure if bears will step aside for more upside or if they try to get this down again and trap late bulls. We will probably have an answer tomorrow or Friday, since we also get many bigger news releases which can turn this to either direction with another big move. What I don’t expect is that we spend much time at this price. We either melt-up more or reverse strong.
Invalidation is above 19110.
short term: Neutral. I want to see if bears jump in here or we move much higher. Above 19110 the odds for 19400 are great. Below 18950 I think bears could get it lower again.
medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started building small short position 19039. If we strongly break above 19110, will cover and wait.
trade of the day: On the 15m tf: Two legged pull-back at the open which were all bullish bars to go long if you weren’t already. Market stayed above the 15m 20ema since 1h after the EU opening.
overall market comment
Bulls owned the markets today but when you zoom out, almost all are still inside their given ranges, new ath or not. Sp500 and NQ are pumping while dax and dji are still looking more bearish than bullish on higher tf. The only interesting question now is, if bulls can get follow through tomorrow of if this was a buy vacuum to the obvious magnets and we will now see a nasty reversal. Since this rally is done by basically one stock, I do think the chances of a reversal are not as low as most think. For NQ my assumption is that this was a higher high major trend reversal and 19060/19100 could be the high. I see those chances much higher than a breakout above the bull wedge. But I’m very open to the possibility that the melt-up continues and NQ will go to 20000.
Commodities are still inside their trading ranges and nothing changed for them. Gold is inside the given range and Oil had the first green day after 5 down days.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Let’s use the daily chart here for my points. Very big bull bar today which confirmed the bull flag breakout from yesterday and we printed a new ath. Now what? We have the very big bull trend line which could lead to 19500 and the bull wedge which could make us reverse here. It was the fifth push up and a climactic one at that. I would only consider more longs here, if bears capitulate and we do not print red bars at all. If bears show up and enough bulls take profits, will see 18600 again soon.
current market cycle: trading range (yes, even with the new ath. if bulls get follow through, I’m obviously wrong about that)
key levels: 18200 - 19084
bull case: Bulls want follow through tomorrow to completely erase all bears and print 19400/19600. My line in the sand for them is 18950. If we drop below that price, I do think chances are better for a reversal than another break above.
Invalidation is below 18950.
bear case: Bears did not keep it below 18750 and we got higher prices as I expected, if bulls break above. Now bears capitulated today and we saw a buy vacuum to the old ath and printed a new one. I am not sure if bears will step aside for more upside or if they try to get this down again and trap late bulls. We will probably have an answer tomorrow or Friday, since we also get many bigger news releases which can turn this to either direction with another big move. What I don’t expect is that we spend much time at this price. We either melt-up more or reverse strong.
Invalidation is above 19110.
short term: Neutral. I want to see if bears jump in here or we move much higher. Above 19110 the odds for 19400 are great. Below 18950 I think bears could get it lower again.
medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started building small short position 19039. If we strongly break above 19110, will cover and wait.
trade of the day: On the 15m tf: Two legged pull-back at the open which were all bullish bars to go long if you weren’t already. Market stayed above the 15m 20ema since 1h after the EU opening.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.