Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days.
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end of it since it was so climactic and extreme.
key levels: 16000 - 18400 (but I doubt we get below 16400 for the next days/weeks)
bull case: Both sides make good money currently and we have a big range to trade. 17500 is my neutral price where I expect market to spend most of it’s time for the next days/weeks. We should see at least 10 session sideways to up movement.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears can not expect this to continue down for now and they have to continue to keep the market below 19000 and leave a big gap open up to 19350. Earnings start on Friday and I have no idea how that will go. So no bearish bias since my targets are all met.
short term: Neutral around 17500 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Selling the double top above 18300 for a casual 14000 point drop. Congratulations if you took it and held through it. I did not.
comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days.
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end of it since it was so climactic and extreme.
key levels: 16000 - 18400 (but I doubt we get below 16400 for the next days/weeks)
bull case: Both sides make good money currently and we have a big range to trade. 17500 is my neutral price where I expect market to spend most of it’s time for the next days/weeks. We should see at least 10 session sideways to up movement.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears can not expect this to continue down for now and they have to continue to keep the market below 19000 and leave a big gap open up to 19350. Earnings start on Friday and I have no idea how that will go. So no bearish bias since my targets are all met.
short term: Neutral around 17500 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Selling the double top above 18300 for a casual 14000 point drop. Congratulations if you took it and held through it. I did not.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.