Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears get nothing going. Everything is bought. Do not look for shorts unless you can scalp really well. We have room for 1 more day of chop but ultimately I think we will print 22000, like sp500 wants the 6000+. Bull channel is valid until broken, so look for longs.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 22000
bull case: Bulls want a new ath and we are high enough, that they could easily get it. As long as we stay above 21200, the bull channel is alive and well and we are making higher highs and higher lows. Don’t need to write more for bulls because they have all the arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Bears can only join the chat again, once we have a daily close below 21000. This channel upwards is tight. Do not look for shorts.
Invalidation is above 21200ish but real confirmation is only below 21000.
short term: Neutral for another day but when the breakout happens, obviously bullish for 22000 and maybe some more. We have room for one more chop day.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. 21400 - 21460 was the main range and both sides made money today. Only real bad trade was shorting below 21400 or buying the Globex high.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.