Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear trend line from 20536 broken again and market is probing higher to remain in a trading range at the lows. Bears need lower lows below 19300 tomorrow and bulls want to continue with the higher highs and higher lows. As long as the big bear trend line from 20452 holds, bears remain in control and see this as a more complex W2. To keep this possibility alive, the bounce has to stay below 20000.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but currently in W2
key levels: 19000 - 20600
bull case: Bull wedge, stairs pattern, doesn’t matter what you want to call this, it’s not strong buying. We have deep pullbacks that retrace more than 60% of the move and we are barely making higher highs. If bulls want to hit 20000, they need a stronger breakout above this wedge and for now I doubt it. Bulls did good in trapping late bears hoping for bigger selling already but as long as bears can scale in higher and make money because we stay low, bulls are not winning this. Their next target is the big bear trend line around 20000 which is also close enough to the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 18960.
bear case: Bears can argue this is a retest of the breakout but they need to print a strong down day again soon. Otherwise this could lead to more sideways to up movement and break the bear trend line. For now the pullback is still minor, compared to the move from 20500 to 19000 and bears remain in full control until the bear trend line is broken. Problem for the bears is the weekly tf. We are at prior bigger support since market has not closed below 19000 since 2024-04. Bears don’t want to repeat the pattern from last year, where we went straight down for 4 weeks, to then rally 25% form low to high.
short term: Slightly bearish around 19600 for trading back down to 19500 or maybe 400. Bull wedge is valid until clearly broken and as of now I think the odds for either side to break out are even. The closer we get to the big bear trend line, the better they become for the bears again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
trade of the day: Big down, big up, big confusion. Buy low, sell high and scalp. Market clearly is not in trending mode since the pull-backs are too deep and every decent follow-through buying & selling is followed by disappointment. Best trade was buying near 19300, since it was bigger support yesterday and just a breakout-retest from Monday.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.