Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 18200 is the next huge support and it’s likely that we get there tomorrow and there I would conclude my W3 thesis. Doing another red day into the weekend seems most reasonable because who the duck wants to hold on to longs in the current environment?
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 ongoing - target is 18200ish and W5 should get us to 17500ish
key levels: 18000 - 20100
bull case: Bulls can make money buying new lows on days like today but bears made sure to only print lower highs. For tomorrow bulls can’t expect something different to happen. Best they can hope for is to stay closer to 20000 but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is below 18100.
bear case: Bears have the 2024-04 and 2024-08 lows in sight and could get there tomorrow. They are in full control if they continue to print lower lows and lower highs. Right now the 1h 20ema is holding like a champ but my drawn bear trend line will most likely have to be adjusted tomorrow before EU open. Every bear who sold the spike down yesterday is betting on a measured move down which is around 17600. Can we get there tomorrow? Very unlikely. This is most likely a spike & channel pattern that started Wednesday and given that tomorrow is the end of the week, I expect market to now go above 19000.
short term: Bearish for 18400 or even 18200. Lower highs have to hold, so no prices above 19000 or market turns a tad more neutral at least on lower time frames. Bulls can only hope for long scalps on new lows and going sideways.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 underway, W5 should get us to my target. If we get there, no matter how dire, you just have to buy some very long term investments there. Odds that Nasdaq will stay below 20000 for the next 5 years are so abysmally low.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold or look which bigger 20ema holds and look for shorts near it. Today it was once again the 1h 20ema.
comment: 18200 is the next huge support and it’s likely that we get there tomorrow and there I would conclude my W3 thesis. Doing another red day into the weekend seems most reasonable because who the duck wants to hold on to longs in the current environment?
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 ongoing - target is 18200ish and W5 should get us to 17500ish
key levels: 18000 - 20100
bull case: Bulls can make money buying new lows on days like today but bears made sure to only print lower highs. For tomorrow bulls can’t expect something different to happen. Best they can hope for is to stay closer to 20000 but I highly doubt that.
Invalidation is below 18100.
bear case: Bears have the 2024-04 and 2024-08 lows in sight and could get there tomorrow. They are in full control if they continue to print lower lows and lower highs. Right now the 1h 20ema is holding like a champ but my drawn bear trend line will most likely have to be adjusted tomorrow before EU open. Every bear who sold the spike down yesterday is betting on a measured move down which is around 17600. Can we get there tomorrow? Very unlikely. This is most likely a spike & channel pattern that started Wednesday and given that tomorrow is the end of the week, I expect market to now go above 19000.
short term: Bearish for 18400 or even 18200. Lower highs have to hold, so no prices above 19000 or market turns a tad more neutral at least on lower time frames. Bulls can only hope for long scalps on new lows and going sideways.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 underway, W5 should get us to my target. If we get there, no matter how dire, you just have to buy some very long term investments there. Odds that Nasdaq will stay below 20000 for the next 5 years are so abysmally low.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold or look which bigger 20ema holds and look for shorts near it. Today it was once again the 1h 20ema.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.