2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025.
current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again.
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200.
Pullback targets above are 19600-19700
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025.
current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again.
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200.
Pullback targets above are 19600-19700
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06
current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
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