Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big bear trend line is holding up and market printed a lower high. I expect lower highs and higher lows for much more time. By now you should know that I don’t make up stuff about trading ranges and a triangle is a form of a trading range. You buy low, sell high and scalp. Mark the 30% of the upper and lower bound of the range, trend lines and trade if market turns. It’s not rocket science. It’s about you against you and not letting emotions mess up your trading success.
current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading range a bit more likely right now. At least on lower time frames.
key levels: 16000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want to keep this higher low much higher than 17200 and are trying above the breakout price 18360. Tomorrow we will see if they can get a second leg up and retest 19000. I have no opinion on that and will wait what the market will give me. Shorting below 18800 is bad, no matter what. Is 18450 a good buy for the bulls? Far from it. Where would you put your stop? 17900? Risk of that getting hit is very high.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears did good at keeping this a lower high and casually selling down for 1469 points. In the grand scheme of things it’s around a 50% retracement of yesterday, so currently a “normal” move if you just look at this week. Markets are broken and someone bigger will fail soon. They always do. Swing shorts are ok at 18400 if you can add higher again. Risk of a retest 19000 is too big for a trade with a tight stop. If I had to guess, I think we will retest 17500 tomorrow and close somewhere around 18000.
short term: Neutral around 17900-18700 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Shorting yesterday’s high was the obvious trade of the day since market only made lower highs since Globex open. Tough day in any case because the swings are so wild that the risk is gigantic on any given trade. Not the best environment for beginners or people with small accounts. Trade small and be humble.
comment: Big bear trend line is holding up and market printed a lower high. I expect lower highs and higher lows for much more time. By now you should know that I don’t make up stuff about trading ranges and a triangle is a form of a trading range. You buy low, sell high and scalp. Mark the 30% of the upper and lower bound of the range, trend lines and trade if market turns. It’s not rocket science. It’s about you against you and not letting emotions mess up your trading success.
current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading range a bit more likely right now. At least on lower time frames.
key levels: 16000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want to keep this higher low much higher than 17200 and are trying above the breakout price 18360. Tomorrow we will see if they can get a second leg up and retest 19000. I have no opinion on that and will wait what the market will give me. Shorting below 18800 is bad, no matter what. Is 18450 a good buy for the bulls? Far from it. Where would you put your stop? 17900? Risk of that getting hit is very high.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears did good at keeping this a lower high and casually selling down for 1469 points. In the grand scheme of things it’s around a 50% retracement of yesterday, so currently a “normal” move if you just look at this week. Markets are broken and someone bigger will fail soon. They always do. Swing shorts are ok at 18400 if you can add higher again. Risk of a retest 19000 is too big for a trade with a tight stop. If I had to guess, I think we will retest 17500 tomorrow and close somewhere around 18000.
short term: Neutral around 17900-18700 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Shorting yesterday’s high was the obvious trade of the day since market only made lower highs since Globex open. Tough day in any case because the swings are so wild that the risk is gigantic on any given trade. Not the best environment for beginners or people with small accounts. Trade small and be humble.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.