Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Volume is garbage but we are moving higher. Likely more due to strong bears stepping aside rather then strong bulls buying. 20700 is the 50% and we will likely get there over the next 1-2 days. I do think bears have to prevent the bulls from getting a 4th consecutive daily bull bar or more bulls could join and more bears cover. My thesis is that we are in W2 and forming a bear channel, so I would greatly prefer it if market stays below 20700. 20900 would be the breakout retest and is the next logical target above.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but currently in W2 (above 20700 that thesis drops to a 50/50 chance)
key levels: 19600 - 20700
bull case: Bulls have a bull trend from Globex open yesterday and keeping the market above the 1h 20ema. Right now longs with stop 20360 are reasonable since we are making higher lows. 20700 is the obvious target and then the breakout-retest 20900. As long as bulls keep the lower bull trend line valid, they are good. The upper wedge line is likely to get broken, so I don’t think it’s bigger resistance. Market is doing his best to keep most traders out of this move up, since most of the gains are made in the pre- and after market (obviously not futures).
Invalidation is below 20360.
bear case: Bears don’t have much right now. The bear trend is obviously still alive and market is likely forming a bear channel but since we are going up in a very tight channel, bulls are in control on the lower time frames. Bears need to either print a strong rejection tomorrow before or after we hit 20700. I’d prefer before, then another leg up to the 50% and then another strong rejection down to 20000 but it’s a rough guess. First target for bears is a break below 20300 again and going sideways.
short term: Neutral 20500 and bullish only closer to the 1h 20ema. 20700 is my bull target and there I expect the battle for either continuation of the big bear trend or transition into a big trading range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
trade of the day: Buying 20300 early in EU session or any pullback close to the 1h 20ema. Market is so strong since open of the week that moving far below the 1h 20ema was very low probability.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.