MRNA & BNTX are free calls
Updated
Doji (W) on both stocks
Fundamentals are terrific:
Forward cash and equivalents make those stocks nearly free ( pipeline, production capacity, distribution networks priced at 0) :
- most contracts for 22 are already signed and/or partly cashed in (US still negotiating for MRNA),
- contracts signing for 23 has started as well as governments have to be ready ( access to the doses) in case of new Covid waves
- MRNA is developing a new concept (2 MOU signed) that i d call PAAS for biotech ( government would be entering into a 10 years agreement in exchange for benefiting of their own capacity and modularity of vaccines development and production). The point being like for SAAS and PAAS in IT pricing model would be recurring.
So fantastic defensive stocks in the current environment ( favoring cash, dividend and real assets ) and then we might get lucky as well !
Fundamentals are terrific:
Forward cash and equivalents make those stocks nearly free ( pipeline, production capacity, distribution networks priced at 0) :
- most contracts for 22 are already signed and/or partly cashed in (US still negotiating for MRNA),
- contracts signing for 23 has started as well as governments have to be ready ( access to the doses) in case of new Covid waves
- MRNA is developing a new concept (2 MOU signed) that i d call PAAS for biotech ( government would be entering into a 10 years agreement in exchange for benefiting of their own capacity and modularity of vaccines development and production). The point being like for SAAS and PAAS in IT pricing model would be recurring.
So fantastic defensive stocks in the current environment ( favoring cash, dividend and real assets ) and then we might get lucky as well !
Trade active
Both stocks bounced from the Doji following Covid resurgence in China and Europe. US will follow probably in the next 2 weeks.Trade active
i believe the biggest misunderstanding about those stocks is the client target and the rational for the investment. Money managers think in term of Covid contagion and therefore they believe they would bet more than invest. This is completely wrong and it shows they did not thinking it tru. If i exacerbate the point it doesn't matter that much if the Covid is currently circulating or not. What matter is that the gouvernements WHICH ARE THE CLIENTS ( not people) cannot afford not to book (buy) the necessary quantities and products ( vaccines) for the coming years. They are not in the guessing game ( too expensive as they might not be capable to spend again hundreds of billions ). They have to plan for at least one or two years in advance in order to protect their citizens ( and their budget )Note
First resistances reached. Partial profit taking.Note
Quick note. No big news during BNTX earning calls yesterday. So for the coming weeks. We will be looking for regular updates on the COVID situations WW and on new orders (notably awaiting public announcement regarding US orders).Note
Rough rides. So. Both MRNA and BNTX ( tru PFE) have confirmed sales numbers for 2022. So no further information before guidance 23 at end of year. Taking more partial profit. Still like those companies as gvts will keep on securing the dosis and competitors are now distanced.Trade active
Another Doji. Another bounce. To fill the gap?Note
Note
All sold on MRNA @199 Keeping some BNTX for potential gap closing.
But i still like those stocks.
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