MSFT’s Momentum Weakening: Where’re the defending levels?
Trend
- On the weekly chart: Still within the large uptrend channel since January 2023.
- On the daily chart: The minor uptrend channel since October 2023 was broken with moderate volume.
- Although the long-term uptrend remains intact, the short-term momentum may be pausing.
100% Symmetrical Projection: Uptrend “N” Patterns
- There are two price projection models, both leading to the same ultimate target price of $457.
- The large purple N, starting from January 2023.
- The small orange N, starting from October 2023.
- Symmetry break: If the price drops below the prior low at $400, the symmetry (the pullback) is violated. Following that, with increased uncertainties, anticipating the price action will become challenging.
- If the momentum is strong, we could expect a clear price movement toward the target price once it surpasses the symmetrical retracement box at $421. However, the price is currently hovering around $421, indicating weakening momentum.
N Pattern’s Target Price & Fibonacci Price Cluster
- Both N patterns are an A+ setup.
- Retrace 0.382 of the prior swing and then continue to rise.
- The level of 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the prior swing is the N’s target price.
- The level of 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the retracement is the N’s target price.
- The price treats the key Fibonacci levels as significant support and resistance levels along the way up.
Conclusion
- Currently, the momentum is weakening, though not yet exhausted.
- Once the price breaks below $400, the short-term momentum will be exhausted, potentially leading to a trend reversal.
- In the long term, for MSFT to sustain the uptrend, the price should remain within the large uptrend channel and above the price level of $367.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.