So first off, we have a major negative which is the lack of trading history on NANO/BTC as it was released on Binance in Feb 2018 and has been in decline ever since due to being released during the time that the markets were getting hammered after the large spike in Dec 2017. This does not mean that we can not evaluate the price to some extent.
I have taken a price evaluation between those tokens that are close to the same in circulating supply. The price comparison was between NANO, OMG, KNC, BTC and USD. The price comparison showed that NANO was very slightly overpriced (and can expect a drop in value to reflect this) in both BTC and USD compared to OMG and KNC, but nothing out of the ordinary. This combined with the small amount of movement in NANO/BTC since the latter half of June 2018 could indicate that people are beginning to settle down on a price that is agreeable for them.
As a side note, the token has a large focus on scalability, which has been a big topic in the crypto world as of lately. It has a place in the top 100 tokens on coinmarketcap.com. It is comparably as fast if not faster than XRP and XLM. Lastly, it has what would appear to be a decent following with near 30,000 members in its discord and an active reddit community.
Technical Analysis: We can see that we are most definitely in a falling wedge. There seems to be still bit of space for the price to fall. I expect it to retest the bottom at the very least and at the worst to take about a 17-20% drop from the current price (0.0003709 BTC). Optimistically speaking, I would say we are near the bottom of the cup in a Cup & Handle formation and we could potentially see a completed cup in the first half of Oct 2018.
How to approach: In regards to a 1 mo+ investment, I would 100% be conservative on this and wait. We have not seen anything that would suggest to us otherwise that the price is not going to continue falling and simply is just not worth the risk. I would see how it would interact with those resistance trend lines and with a little bit of luck, we will get something like an inverse H&S to really sell us on the uptrend.
Remember, don't drink and trade...always ask someone to hold your beer first!
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