NAS100 - MY BEARISH SCENARIO (TARGET 16500)
Updated
What are we looking at?
1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne.
2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7.
3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib).
4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside.
5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG.
6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go!
7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself.
8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure.
9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà.
10) 2 targets for partials.
NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
1) An all-time-high (ATH) to end 2023 with fireworks and champagne.
2) A sneaky daily bearish FVG that we know is relevant thanks to step 5 and 7.
3) A retracement creating a range that ends on the notorious 0.618 fib level (weekly fib).
4) The continuation of the general trend, price pulls back into the range and creates a daily bullish FVG. It is indeed plausible that price does continue and forms a new ATH but for arguments sake, I prefer the probabilities a short gives me in a premium market with more liquidity to grab on the sellside.
5) Price halts in the bearish FVG mentioned in step 2 and prior to that created a 4H bullish FVG.
6) The CPI release had price wick into the 4H FVG and back into the consolidation we go!
7) Price wicking at multiple occasions in the daily bearish FVG which is to me a primary signal for a short setup despite all the bullish price action around it. Listen, if price breaks buyside aggressively, no short will be taken. We need price to break a low and then a short structure may present itself.
8) Here we have the potential break to the downside, taking out sellside liquidity. We can also call this a break-of-structure.
9) A pullback for a potential short entry and voilà.
10) 2 targets for partials.
NFA and happy trading guys! ;)
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Note
Trade closed: stop reached
My first partial was hit leading to a 0.5% profit. When my TP1 is hit I put SL to BE. TP1 has a fixed RR of 1:1. So the total risk starts at 1% and then goes straight to 0%. Today's session choppy, the bulls took control and took out buyside after buyside. We'll see tomorrow.Note
Buyside not getting taken out is crazy to me. Bearish scenario still on!
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