Natalie has fromed a H&S and has broke through all of the supporting EMAs leading to most of the indicators turning bearish.
My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches.
Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear.
Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand.
Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24.
Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024.
Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook
U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms.
📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025
🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf,
🔻 4.7% lower YoY
🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average
🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average
🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady
➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price.
➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term.
📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.).
🧭 Watching for:
Injection trends over the next few weeks
Cooling demand in power sector
Resistance around $3.40
Support near $2.80
My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches.
Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear.
Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand.
Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24.
Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024.
Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook
U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms.
📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025
🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf,
🔻 4.7% lower YoY
🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average
🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average
🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady
➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price.
➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term.
📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.).
🧭 Watching for:
Injection trends over the next few weeks
Cooling demand in power sector
Resistance around $3.40
Support near $2.80
Note
Serious weekly divergence still being worked through Note
HUGE rejections on the monthly and has broken down below all supporting EMAs Note
Weekly Ichimoku could be in the way of my idea if it finds great support. Historically quite effective in establishing support/resistance Trade active
We have seen a break and a retest, but we have some major bullish divergence now at play, which worries me heading into next week: Trade closed: target reached
It has also managed to close above the weekly ICHIMOKU cloud: Note
However, failing to break the hourly ICHIMOKUs, bar the 1hr. Note
It has broken down, out of various trend areas and you'd expect it to go down. However, ALGOs may well open up and take all of the stop losses first.Note
Note
Note
Do bear in mind that the daily MACD and RSI Divegences are on crack. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.