Natural Gas Market (XNGUSD) - Trading Strategy and Analysis (Week 12 - March 2025)
Fundamental Analysis:
Short-term (next week): Neutral to bearish due to mild weather forecasts and strong production. Key event: Weekly EIA inventory report every Thursday.
Long-term (6-9 months): Bullish due to strong global LNG demand, lower inventory reserves, and inflationary pressures.
Technical Key Levels:
Bearish Key Levels (Support):
4.1000 (immediate bearish confirmation)
4.0000 (important psychological support)
3.8500 (critical support, likely bottom if bearish momentum accelerates)
Bullish Key Levels (Resistance):
4.2000 (initial significant bullish confirmation)
4.4460 (strong technical resistance, crucial bullish confirmation)
5.0000 (long-term resistance target for winter 2025)
Probabilities & Scenarios (March 17-23, 2025):
Bearish Scenario (65-70% probability):
On a clear break below 4.1000, target towards 4.0000 and possibly 3.8500.
Bullish Scenario (30-35%):
Clear breakout above 4.2000 may trigger bullish momentum targeting 4.4460 initially.
Recommended Trading Strategy:
Short-Term Strategy:
Enter short positions if the price breaks below 4.1000, with initial target at 4.0000 and secondary target at 3.8500.
Long-Term Strategy:
Be strategically prepared to switch to bullish bias if prices convincingly break above 4.2000, targeting 4.4460, and potentially toward 5.0000 in the late summer to autumn period.
Conclusion:
For the short term, favor bearish price movements but remain strategically prepared to shift to a bullish outlook as the fundamental factors likely push natural gas prices higher towards the next heating season.
Fundamental Analysis:
Short-term (next week): Neutral to bearish due to mild weather forecasts and strong production. Key event: Weekly EIA inventory report every Thursday.
Long-term (6-9 months): Bullish due to strong global LNG demand, lower inventory reserves, and inflationary pressures.
Technical Key Levels:
Bearish Key Levels (Support):
4.1000 (immediate bearish confirmation)
4.0000 (important psychological support)
3.8500 (critical support, likely bottom if bearish momentum accelerates)
Bullish Key Levels (Resistance):
4.2000 (initial significant bullish confirmation)
4.4460 (strong technical resistance, crucial bullish confirmation)
5.0000 (long-term resistance target for winter 2025)
Probabilities & Scenarios (March 17-23, 2025):
Bearish Scenario (65-70% probability):
On a clear break below 4.1000, target towards 4.0000 and possibly 3.8500.
Bullish Scenario (30-35%):
Clear breakout above 4.2000 may trigger bullish momentum targeting 4.4460 initially.
Recommended Trading Strategy:
Short-Term Strategy:
Enter short positions if the price breaks below 4.1000, with initial target at 4.0000 and secondary target at 3.8500.
Long-Term Strategy:
Be strategically prepared to switch to bullish bias if prices convincingly break above 4.2000, targeting 4.4460, and potentially toward 5.0000 in the late summer to autumn period.
Conclusion:
For the short term, favor bearish price movements but remain strategically prepared to shift to a bullish outlook as the fundamental factors likely push natural gas prices higher towards the next heating season.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.