Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDQ100) – 1W Chart
Hello TradingView Community,
I’d like to share my technical analysis of the NDQ100 on the weekly chart, based on historical price movements and Fibonacci retracements. The index is displaying a clear pattern that suggests a continuation of the uptrend following a correction. Here’s my outlook:
1. Upward Move to $22,889.74
The NDQ100 has seen a strong recovery since the low of approximately $5,692.32 (March 2020) and continues to show bullish momentum. Based on the Fibonacci extension (161.8%) from the last major correction (2022), the next significant target is $22,889.74. This level has been tested multiple times as resistance (see chart), and a breakout seems likely given the ongoing demand for tech stocks. The current price action also shows strong support from the 50-week EMA, which acts as a dynamic support level.
2. Correction of -34% to $15,087.06
Once the NDQ100 reaches $22,889.74, I anticipate a healthy correction. Historically, the Nasdaq has often experienced corrections of 30-40% after strong rallies (e.g., -34.17% in 2022). A -34% correction would bring the index down to approximately $15,087.06. This level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone from the 2020-2025 rally and provides a strong support area, coinciding with previous consolidation zones (2023). Additionally, the 200-week EMA lies within this range, reinforcing it as a potential reversal point.
3. Rise of +121% to $32,923.00
Following the correction, I expect a new bullish wave. From $15,087.06, a +121% increase would take the NDQ100 to $32,923.00. This target is based on the Fibonacci extension (261.8%) of the entire uptrend since 2020, as well as historical patterns where the NDQ100 often reaches new all-time highs after corrections. The long-term trendline (marked on the chart) supports this outlook, as does the ongoing strength in the tech sector, driven by innovations in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors.
Additional Indicators:
RSI (Weekly): The RSI is currently at 73.5, indicating potential overbought conditions. A pullback after reaching $22,889.74 would bring the RSI into a healthier range (around 50) before the next upward move begins.
Volume: Volume has increased during the recent rally, confirming the strength of the uptrend. A decline in volume during the correction would reflect a typical pattern for healthy consolidation.
Conclusion:
The NDQ100 exhibits a bullish long-term setup with an intermediate target at $22,889.74, followed by a -34% correction to $15,087.06. Afterward, I anticipate a strong rise of +121% to $32,923.00. This scenario offers both short-term trading opportunities (during the correction) and long-term investment potential. As always, keep an eye on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and geopolitical developments, as these can significantly impact the tech sector.
Hello TradingView Community,
I’d like to share my technical analysis of the NDQ100 on the weekly chart, based on historical price movements and Fibonacci retracements. The index is displaying a clear pattern that suggests a continuation of the uptrend following a correction. Here’s my outlook:
1. Upward Move to $22,889.74
The NDQ100 has seen a strong recovery since the low of approximately $5,692.32 (March 2020) and continues to show bullish momentum. Based on the Fibonacci extension (161.8%) from the last major correction (2022), the next significant target is $22,889.74. This level has been tested multiple times as resistance (see chart), and a breakout seems likely given the ongoing demand for tech stocks. The current price action also shows strong support from the 50-week EMA, which acts as a dynamic support level.
2. Correction of -34% to $15,087.06
Once the NDQ100 reaches $22,889.74, I anticipate a healthy correction. Historically, the Nasdaq has often experienced corrections of 30-40% after strong rallies (e.g., -34.17% in 2022). A -34% correction would bring the index down to approximately $15,087.06. This level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone from the 2020-2025 rally and provides a strong support area, coinciding with previous consolidation zones (2023). Additionally, the 200-week EMA lies within this range, reinforcing it as a potential reversal point.
3. Rise of +121% to $32,923.00
Following the correction, I expect a new bullish wave. From $15,087.06, a +121% increase would take the NDQ100 to $32,923.00. This target is based on the Fibonacci extension (261.8%) of the entire uptrend since 2020, as well as historical patterns where the NDQ100 often reaches new all-time highs after corrections. The long-term trendline (marked on the chart) supports this outlook, as does the ongoing strength in the tech sector, driven by innovations in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors.
Additional Indicators:
RSI (Weekly): The RSI is currently at 73.5, indicating potential overbought conditions. A pullback after reaching $22,889.74 would bring the RSI into a healthier range (around 50) before the next upward move begins.
Volume: Volume has increased during the recent rally, confirming the strength of the uptrend. A decline in volume during the correction would reflect a typical pattern for healthy consolidation.
Conclusion:
The NDQ100 exhibits a bullish long-term setup with an intermediate target at $22,889.74, followed by a -34% correction to $15,087.06. Afterward, I anticipate a strong rise of +121% to $32,923.00. This scenario offers both short-term trading opportunities (during the correction) and long-term investment potential. As always, keep an eye on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and geopolitical developments, as these can significantly impact the tech sector.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.