DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - A Nasdaq Hedge
Good day everyone!
DA Bull here with a quick big picture discussion. The Nasdaq 100 is known as the "tech-index". It is composed of over 3,000 companies and took a major hit during the dot com bubble. However, we are finding the NASDAQ at historic levels once again. When a price hits historic levels that does not mean sell. You will never hear DA Bull say sell for that reason. In this case, I would strongly encourage folks to consider the risk/reward.
World debt is at $164 Trillion.
U.S. Corporate debt is over $6.4 Trillion.
Rates are rising.
Inflation is rising.
Without getting into how historical these levels of debt are, the fact remains many debts will be refinanced soon. With those 4 facts above, we can expect profit margins of major companies to lessen over the coming years. The companies with the most debts accrued during these fiscally friendly times - with the debts still on the books - will feel the rate hikes the most. Keep in mind I'm not here to talk about systemic risk or preach to you that the sky is falling...I'm here just to discuss risk/reward.
Simply based on this small viewpoint and comparing the similarities of the NASDAQ 100 right now to the NASDAQ 20 years ago, you will see a very similar patter. It would appear, based on history (which doesn't repeat itself, but tends to rhyme), that we are very close to the peak.
Since 2010 the NASDAQ has given 4x returns. That is pretty spectacular. How much more can an investor expect? I'm not sure, but another 25%+ is probably off the table, unless the peak has a very VERY tall wick. In saying all this, technology stocks have proven to be great investments. The largest tech companies have almost single handedly moved the S&P the last several months. For those tech lovers, have a look at Bitcoin. Blockchain and cryptocurrency is the future. Bitcoin has been nearing a low and can prove to be a great hedge over the next few years as many go up in arms with the amount of debt in the system.
- DA Bear -
DA Bull here with a quick big picture discussion. The Nasdaq 100 is known as the "tech-index". It is composed of over 3,000 companies and took a major hit during the dot com bubble. However, we are finding the NASDAQ at historic levels once again. When a price hits historic levels that does not mean sell. You will never hear DA Bull say sell for that reason. In this case, I would strongly encourage folks to consider the risk/reward.
World debt is at $164 Trillion.
U.S. Corporate debt is over $6.4 Trillion.
Rates are rising.
Inflation is rising.
Without getting into how historical these levels of debt are, the fact remains many debts will be refinanced soon. With those 4 facts above, we can expect profit margins of major companies to lessen over the coming years. The companies with the most debts accrued during these fiscally friendly times - with the debts still on the books - will feel the rate hikes the most. Keep in mind I'm not here to talk about systemic risk or preach to you that the sky is falling...I'm here just to discuss risk/reward.
Simply based on this small viewpoint and comparing the similarities of the NASDAQ 100 right now to the NASDAQ 20 years ago, you will see a very similar patter. It would appear, based on history (which doesn't repeat itself, but tends to rhyme), that we are very close to the peak.
Since 2010 the NASDAQ has given 4x returns. That is pretty spectacular. How much more can an investor expect? I'm not sure, but another 25%+ is probably off the table, unless the peak has a very VERY tall wick. In saying all this, technology stocks have proven to be great investments. The largest tech companies have almost single handedly moved the S&P the last several months. For those tech lovers, have a look at Bitcoin. Blockchain and cryptocurrency is the future. Bitcoin has been nearing a low and can prove to be a great hedge over the next few years as many go up in arms with the amount of debt in the system.
- DA Bear -
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