Natural Gas - Long Setup ( Near-term )
Updated
Price action suggests a winter pop is on the horizon.
Target Profit: 8%
The time frame for this trade is about a month so I will be using the March contract ( NGH2021 )
Technicals
This week Natural Gas initially sold off but traders eventually bid prices back up to form a bullish hammer which now sits just above a previous support level. In addition, the weekly RSI is near the lows and starting to curl up indicating a reversal is on the way.
Looking a bit closer at the daily chart, it is clear the downtrend is broken and the MACD is showing momentum is starting to shift.
Targets
Now that the bullish technicals are confirmed I'll use Fibonacci retracements to find a good sell target, measuring from the top to recent low. Conventionally this should be somewhere between the 0.5 and 0.618 with 0.236 now acting as support. If prices close below this level then it's time to reassess. For now the target is about 2.9ish.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long QGH2021
+1 @ 2.68
Target Profit: 8%
The time frame for this trade is about a month so I will be using the March contract ( NGH2021 )
Technicals
This week Natural Gas initially sold off but traders eventually bid prices back up to form a bullish hammer which now sits just above a previous support level. In addition, the weekly RSI is near the lows and starting to curl up indicating a reversal is on the way.
Looking a bit closer at the daily chart, it is clear the downtrend is broken and the MACD is showing momentum is starting to shift.
Targets
Now that the bullish technicals are confirmed I'll use Fibonacci retracements to find a good sell target, measuring from the top to recent low. Conventionally this should be somewhere between the 0.5 and 0.618 with 0.236 now acting as support. If prices close below this level then it's time to reassess. For now the target is about 2.9ish.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long QGH2021
+1 @ 2.68
Note
This week prices rallied to the 0.382 fib retracement then dramatically pulled back, breaking below the 0.236 level. Overall this looks like a bottoming pattern so to confirm, I want to see a close above that 0.382 level in the next week or so. Trade closed: stop reached
Winter's a flop. Focusing now on next summer setup.Note
Easy long setup here. Placing a buy stop order at 2.512, just above the last few candles on the 1 hr chart. There is a bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD with a flat line of price action. If my order fills the sell target would be somewhere near the gap above. Note
I forgot QG mini contracts only allow increments of 005 so it's actually @ 2.515Trade active
Prices dipped further this morning while the MACD remains poised near a breakout above zero. It's been selling off the past 10 days straight so the odds of a relief rally are growing. I went ahead and opened a long @ 2.465 on this dip.Note
Weather is already priced very bearish so I'm holding over the weekend. Don't see too much downside risk... at the moment. I'll be quick to take profits if we get a pop and will then look to switch short on the spring contracts for a target down to that 2.15ish level. ( Still long on August too ) Trade closed manually
Quick to take profits here as weakness shows after touching resistance. 
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