Since my last update Nifty moved higher towards 10,478 and then reversed lower to wipe out the gains made during the beginning of the week.Let us look at the possible outcomes after last weeks price action.
My primary count still favors a move lower towards 9200 levels to complete wave C. As per this wave count Nifty has started the wave 3 of C so expect some sharp cuts in the coming week which could take Nifty towards 9700 levels where Nifty could find some support for a minor bounce in the form of wave 4. Watch out for 10,030 levels as a move beneath those levels could pave the way for a major fall in the index.Blue lines indicate the possible chart path of Nifty in case it choose to follow the primary count.
My alternate count came into play due to the price action during last week which opened the possibility of wave C ending as an ending diagonal. For an ending diagonal to materialize Nifty should reverse sharply between 10,140- 10,030 zone before breaking past the trend line at around 10,350 levels.If Nifty manages to do the turnaround next week then we could be looking at a medium term bottom for Nifty. Red lines indicate the possible Nifty path in case of an ED scenario.
Under both scenarios 10,140-10,030 zone becomes very crucial as it could decide the medium term trend for Nifty.
Please consult your financial advisers before making any decisions.
Good Luck Traders !!!