Nifty - Confirmation of Downtrend, Where to enter the short?
Updated
1. Looking at open interest 18000 still has maximum call writing with additions to 17900 and 17800 levels, On the lower levels only significant put writing is at 17500 level
2. PCR is 0.9 suggesting Bearish market
3. Max pain at 17800 levels
4. Any kind of support was at 50 ema levels on the daily chart
5. FII - Futures -2000 cr, cash -4000 cr sell, DII 700 cr net buyers
6. US 10 year bond yield at 1.834 +0.007 +0.40%, which has come down from 1.897
7. News: The Fed is widely expected to tighten monetary policy at a much faster pace than expected a month ago to curb continually high inflation.
8. UK inflation figures were up 0.5% m.o.m could pressure bank of england to raise interest rates.
9. Nifty formed Three black crows today confirming the reverse of the bull trend. Three black crows can sometimes mean market is oversold and could consolidate, however RSI(14) is at 50.49.
10. Selling volumes are stronger than purchase volumes which does confirm strength of a sell.
There might be a slight upside tomorrow after three days of selling but the overall trend is still bearish. But the big question is what levels should one short at?
To me it seems a little unclear at the moment, completely depends on price action tomorrow. However long upside especially before the budget is highly highly unlikely. Market may go to 17900 levels which would be a good place to short but at this point just wait for price action to confirm the entry point.
I Will update when I enter the trade.
However, US Dollar seems strong, look at my analysis chart that I have linked with this post to find positions to enter in USD-INR. It seems a better trade looking at the bond yield numbers.
2. PCR is 0.9 suggesting Bearish market
3. Max pain at 17800 levels
4. Any kind of support was at 50 ema levels on the daily chart
5. FII - Futures -2000 cr, cash -4000 cr sell, DII 700 cr net buyers
6. US 10 year bond yield at 1.834 +0.007 +0.40%, which has come down from 1.897
7. News: The Fed is widely expected to tighten monetary policy at a much faster pace than expected a month ago to curb continually high inflation.
8. UK inflation figures were up 0.5% m.o.m could pressure bank of england to raise interest rates.
9. Nifty formed Three black crows today confirming the reverse of the bull trend. Three black crows can sometimes mean market is oversold and could consolidate, however RSI(14) is at 50.49.
10. Selling volumes are stronger than purchase volumes which does confirm strength of a sell.
There might be a slight upside tomorrow after three days of selling but the overall trend is still bearish. But the big question is what levels should one short at?
To me it seems a little unclear at the moment, completely depends on price action tomorrow. However long upside especially before the budget is highly highly unlikely. Market may go to 17900 levels which would be a good place to short but at this point just wait for price action to confirm the entry point.
I Will update when I enter the trade.
However, US Dollar seems strong, look at my analysis chart that I have linked with this post to find positions to enter in USD-INR. It seems a better trade looking at the bond yield numbers.
Note
Markets opened gap down. On any upticks now will be a good opportunity to short
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