Macro Bias: LONG NOK / SHORT JPY
Why NOKJPY?
1. Fundamental Macro (ENDO):
Norway (NOK):
Strong inflationary pressure, positive PMI, robust M2 growth.
Massive fiscal surplus driven by energy exports – best debt/GDP ratio in the G10.
Norges Bank still maintaining relatively high interest rates.
Positive Terms of Trade, central bank balance sheet (CBBS) is shrinking (long-term bullish for NOK).
Japan (JPY):
Economic stagnation and deflationary risks, weak PMI and consumer spending.
Negative real yields, central bank remains ultra-accommodative, extreme debt/GDP ratio.
Persistent deflationary sentiment – classic “funding currency” for global carry trades.
2. COT Positioning (Commitments of Traders):
JPY is the most crowded short in the entire G10: hedge funds and leveraged funds are aggressively short JPY.
NOK positioning is neutral to slightly long – no overcrowding risk on the long side.
3. EXO & Sentiment Signals:
Terms-of-trade and projected GDP/CPI all favor NOK.
Sentiment, macro “score,” and risk/reward models consistently generate a long NOKJPY signal.
Exogenous indicators (futures, commodity impulse, sentiment, parity) all support NOK strength.
4. Technicals & Carry Edge:
NOKJPY remains in a strong multi-month uptrend.
Major carry advantage: NOK rates are much higher than JPY, yielding significant positive swap.
Every recent pullback has been bought, and momentum remains bullish.
Key Reasons for the Trade:
Multi-model consensus: No contradiction between macro, COT, exo, and technicals.
NOK is “king of G10” by every fundamental measure; JPY is the weakest currency this cycle.
Textbook carry trade for 2025.
Risks:
Only a sudden global “risk-off” or a central bank policy shock could temporarily disrupt the trend.
Currently, there is no crowding risk on NOK longs.
SUMMARY:
LONG NOKJPY is the cleanest, highest-conviction swing trade for this cycle – every model (macro, COT, exo, sentiment, carry) is in agreement.
Every meaningful pullback is a buying opportunity.
Why NOKJPY?
1. Fundamental Macro (ENDO):
Norway (NOK):
Strong inflationary pressure, positive PMI, robust M2 growth.
Massive fiscal surplus driven by energy exports – best debt/GDP ratio in the G10.
Norges Bank still maintaining relatively high interest rates.
Positive Terms of Trade, central bank balance sheet (CBBS) is shrinking (long-term bullish for NOK).
Japan (JPY):
Economic stagnation and deflationary risks, weak PMI and consumer spending.
Negative real yields, central bank remains ultra-accommodative, extreme debt/GDP ratio.
Persistent deflationary sentiment – classic “funding currency” for global carry trades.
2. COT Positioning (Commitments of Traders):
JPY is the most crowded short in the entire G10: hedge funds and leveraged funds are aggressively short JPY.
NOK positioning is neutral to slightly long – no overcrowding risk on the long side.
3. EXO & Sentiment Signals:
Terms-of-trade and projected GDP/CPI all favor NOK.
Sentiment, macro “score,” and risk/reward models consistently generate a long NOKJPY signal.
Exogenous indicators (futures, commodity impulse, sentiment, parity) all support NOK strength.
4. Technicals & Carry Edge:
NOKJPY remains in a strong multi-month uptrend.
Major carry advantage: NOK rates are much higher than JPY, yielding significant positive swap.
Every recent pullback has been bought, and momentum remains bullish.
Key Reasons for the Trade:
Multi-model consensus: No contradiction between macro, COT, exo, and technicals.
NOK is “king of G10” by every fundamental measure; JPY is the weakest currency this cycle.
Textbook carry trade for 2025.
Risks:
Only a sudden global “risk-off” or a central bank policy shock could temporarily disrupt the trend.
Currently, there is no crowding risk on NOK longs.
SUMMARY:
LONG NOKJPY is the cleanest, highest-conviction swing trade for this cycle – every model (macro, COT, exo, sentiment, carry) is in agreement.
Every meaningful pullback is a buying opportunity.
⚡ Actionable setups.
⚡ Weekly fundamental bias.
⚡ Macro, sentiment, and positioning insights.
🛡️ Follow now and trade with an edge, not noise.
⚡ Weekly fundamental bias.
⚡ Macro, sentiment, and positioning insights.
🛡️ Follow now and trade with an edge, not noise.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚡ Actionable setups.
⚡ Weekly fundamental bias.
⚡ Macro, sentiment, and positioning insights.
🛡️ Follow now and trade with an edge, not noise.
⚡ Weekly fundamental bias.
⚡ Macro, sentiment, and positioning insights.
🛡️ Follow now and trade with an edge, not noise.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.