Many calls did play out last week and looking for some targets to get tested this week. On 7/29 called the Yellow arrow (last week's called range), the white is this week's. NDX has some gaps to retest, YTD chart below and yellow arrows are the targets.
The 30M and 4HR charts are adjusted to match the NDX gaps.
Anyway, the Overnight will be used to redirect the NAZ back up after most drops, this is normal and just beware of the O/N Pump/Dump once the Reg Session starts. Washington Street will spin, Fire, Tweet and do whatever works to get NAZ back above the DZ 23,486. Just watch the Queen spiral out of control should it not. The two day drop erased 23 trading days and those buyers are now loosing money. Should it not come back, the buyers that did not sell (trapped) will sell and send this even lower. Games/tricks can not fix that.
The 30M and 4HR charts are adjusted to match the NDX gaps.
Anyway, the Overnight will be used to redirect the NAZ back up after most drops, this is normal and just beware of the O/N Pump/Dump once the Reg Session starts. Washington Street will spin, Fire, Tweet and do whatever works to get NAZ back above the DZ 23,486. Just watch the Queen spiral out of control should it not. The two day drop erased 23 trading days and those buyers are now loosing money. Should it not come back, the buyers that did not sell (trapped) will sell and send this even lower. Games/tricks can not fix that.
Note
Gap Target near fill, look for rejection at KL and drop. May be Tuesday.Note
Note
23,200 is pop out or hook short. 23,033 is next DZ and look for retest on stall out or rejection near 23,300. Short to and Long on hold, Strong Short on break out below. Range now is 23,300 - 23,033. The idea is to Trap more Longs take it lower and keep retesting lower until a strong hold. Note
23,200 Pop up, just watch next move should it get rejected above.Note
Upper Target hit and look short below and long above but long may fizzle.Note
Range is playing out, look for 23,033 retest on stall out near 23,300 and/or drop under 23,260. The O/N lift team is the only curveball. Note
Let it lift and just know that the prior 2 days had the highest volume (selling days) of prior 30 and today is one of the lowest. Typical of a Long Trap set up #2.Note
NDX Gap Fill and potential next move, especially if O/N does not lift.Note
One Way Price Action continues, 1 way on Friday and 1 way on Monday. The O/N tonight will most likely try and lift the index (normal), next key signal is with what the Reg Sessions does tomorrow near Danger Zone or under the DZ. Note
8/5 Update, The fact that the O/N did not lift the NAZ to or above KL 23,486 may be a game over, the Reg Session will have to lift above the Major Resistance Zone on a Tuesday (not typical). Normally we see MRZ's get taken out in off session periods or Holiday's and such. NDX Chart below does show Gap 1 id filled and looking for back above DZ or Gap 2 will get a hit.Note
4HR week Range belowNote
CME Group site will show the 30 day recent NQ volume. We just saw the 23 day low volume lift get erased in 2 days. Any lift back up on low volume may be a head fake so careful with the chase here. Note
IDS view, 23,486 is KL to watch, sideways near, head fakes, any strong rejection use the KL's under as targets on the drop. Should NAZ get above the KL 486 in the reg session it will need to be during the Open Drive and not the Dead Zone. A sell off in the Open Drive is a signal that the NAZ may see more selling pressure should it try to lift again. Note
Divergence here on IDS27, usually we see a drop or drop test.Note
Going Short at/under 23,380 for scalp drop test. Should go back under Gap and retest lower today. Note
On at 380 with 150 point stop, hardest thing here are the stop clean outs prior to drop and all should happen under 486.Note
BTD/FOMO bait or to the Moon today. Flip a coin. Note
Bait worked.Note
23,033 next stop.Note
Closing here as lift back up should come in for next drop on stall out. Expect major Tweets and games in the Dead Zone today.Note
2 day view, NAZ is struggling to get to the O/N. Looks like yesterday was a Dead Cat Bounce or muscle memory of F-M Long Play.Note
Under 23,100 should drop significantly and a hold is Long back up to DZ.Note
Notice how they are keeping it above the drop zone of 23,100Note
23,100 hitNote
8/6 Update, O/N rotating around 23,100 and near hit to KL 23,030. NAZ basically inside projected weekly range and may drop more should it get under KL 23,030 and stay under. Expect Tweets and such to redirect any drop, today the Open Drive and Dead Zone PA conviction is the biggest clue. Note
ShortNote
Adding ShortNote
Stop clean out and should dropNote
Tricky day and key to next big move.Note
Half off on Shorts.Note
Dead zone fake lift.Note
Games in trading time zones, it is easier to trade during heavy volume periods. The low volume periods usually just go straight up and create noise.Note
Hanging onto 280 short and will place stop at break even (23,400 or so). Today is a lift drop offset day (test), most likely will drop when the NAZ or if the NAZ stalls out. Tricky Day.Note
Adding Short.Note
Not much conviction in the Open Drive and usual lift in Dead Zone, going with drop off set until next Open Drive. O/N may lift, just reload if stop out.Note
Heavy activity with the Tweets, all working into the hands of the previous sellers that will return. Note
Stop offNote
Air Pocket below and needs to bust or higher we go.Note
Loaded on the Short side and feeling the prop here today. Just waiting on some sell orders. Note
So the NAZ will drop or try for 24,000, just want to cover both sides and my stop is at 23,500Note
If you are looking Short, look for the M here.Note
Adding Short at 23,410, will add all the way to KL 486 and stop at 23,550. Have points to play with on this one.Note
Will let this one run and I have to leave for the day. Looking for a drop test to drop out and a break of usual tricks and PA.Note
8/7 Update, OK, Got stopped and it does happen. Anyway we can see the easier move (BTD) playing out, as usual. We have the PA today then the F-M Long Play, 24,000 is the upper target and I was expecting a drop test 1st. Note
Notice the O/N lift, this would have to be a Pump/Dump into the Open in order to get some selling going.Note
I have been doing this for a while and many longtime follower's do know that when I call a Strong Short, I am usually 1 day or so early. And during that period we usually see a major lift in the opposite direction 1st. Just keep that in mind as we are still traveling in the old Range prior to the previous drop. Note
Washington is getting way to involved with this market, think it blows up at some point. Tweeting/Posting whipsawing things, just continue to watch the O/N PA vs the Reg Session until Tuesday. Big move in near with major curveball to lock in the Trapped Longs. I am flat and out and will not chase this. Note
On 7/30, I Posted the O/N Capitulation comment, This chart below would be the retest of that level and confirmation, if so. You almost have to separate the price action out between the Overnight and the Reg Session. Note
Back on Short at 23,610Note
Now gap fill lower on NDX and a no hold on drop can turn into a decent drop. NAZ still in the basic range. Tweets and Noise will pick up should the drop pick up speed.Note
The past few days feel like a Pump/Dump on low volume and yet another Long Trap of the BTD/FOMO's. Prior run was up for 23 days and erased in 2. You can spin all you want but when the reg session starts to sell it is hard to redirect that. Note
Notice when the NAZ got above the danger zone (in the O/N). Notice what happens when its gets near the DZ. This is the key to next big move and they will try to keep it above.Note
Back near the Close, Stop at Entry and letting it go. Note
You can see the Day Early reaction here, this has happened many times over the past few years. These tend to be drop offset moves that lift the NAZ just prior to the drop and the next effect is the stabilization of the index. Note
NDX Double Top and NQ had the O/N Pop Off. NAZ needs to stay under the DZ.Note
Note
8/8 Update, The same typical pattern with O/N lifting it back above the Danger Zone. One note to keep in mind today, I have posted this fact in the past many times. The NAZ will retrace 85% of most major moves. This just happened again from 22,800 low. The chart below will show this. Today watch the same Tricks/Tweets at key trading periods, should the NAZ stay under yesterdays high level (and get back under the DZ) we may see a decent sell off. Looking for break down of the Friday - Monday Long Play, if not then look at 24,000 to be target by Tuesday Morning Open. Note
Just notice how the PA reacts when the NAZ gets near the DZ. The Open Drive will retest the DZ and that is the key today.Note
AP Scalp to 486 for next move, looking like a pump/dump, again.Note
Washington Hedge Fund Services is active with the Tweets and looking to keep the NAZ away form the DZ 486. I will be back near the Open Drive. No big drop today we may see slow sideways to O/N for Sunday to Monday easy lift in the off session. BTD/FOMO above the Danger Zone (after drop test).Note
AP set up and Drop Test, a hold above the DZ. This is a NTZ (no trade zone) until break out. Unless you are holding short from yesterday call at 610. Note
Entry #2 Short at same level as yesterday, will give it 50 point stop and this one could go up and away. Trade closed manually
Busy week and will let this play out, have to leave early. The whipsaw week is signaling a decent move to follow and leaning toward lower. Good Luck. Note
Lets see if we get it after the Dead Zone lift stall out. Snail up and Expressway lower. Note
Extremely low volume and may see decent move under 23,700. Above that may rocket up, one of the two will happen.Note
Yellow arrow may be Tuesday's PA
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.