Long

NQ ideas for the month of april 2016

Updated

Looking at time and price on the NQ continual contract. From the march yr 2000 high to the november low in yr 2008, 100% of time projected into the future is july yr 2017. Although the correction ended in march yr 2009 with a marginal higher low making a bouble bottom. So 100% in time could extend a few months out and end in march of yr 2018 where price could try to trade up to a possible top channel trendline. The top channel trendline at 100% in time is at a round number of 5500 Price could close above 5500 on a daily and weekly close but not close above 5500 on a monthly close. This is all bs. As long as price continues to hold the 0.618 trendline that was brief monthly support in yr 2008 I believe buying the dip is a good rr trade. However if price breaks the 0.618 trendline support like it did in yr 2008 I would not buy the dip since this trendline has a history of when broken price can correct more. More bs. I do not know since this is all speculation at the moment. Notes on chart.

I wouldn´t be looking to go full on long at current prices, but would look to buy the dip if one presents itself in april.

Will post other ideas in the comment section for the month of april.

Note. I can change my mind on a trade in a second depending on market conditions. I am not married to a trade idea.

Note

looking at the spx and time, there seems to be pattern forming where the week of may 9th could set up a similar correction as august and january. we have not seen a strong sell in may since 2011.
notes on chart

Note

Looking at the ES june contract there is an EW count where there could be one more push higher to complete a W5 of an ending diagonal. If this is the case the NQ sould rally along with it.

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FWIW, on the COT Index the daytime session S&P500 is giving a strong sell signal. This is when commercial is selling where the cot index is at 0% - large traders and retail traders are buying where the cot index is at 100% I am not implying there is going to be a crash. But we could witness a reversal coming into next week. Or I am full of BS. Guess we will find out next week.

Note

Next week I have a few fib time periods. Most only look at price. But time and price can create powerful moves. chart 1

chart 2 is a longer fib time cycle that has been working quite good or until it stops. While the exact day might not be identified, I believe if this cycle continues next week could see some sort of high followed by a pullback.

Note

Here is a possible NQ june contract count where W4 traded back to previous W4s . This is if my count here is correct.

elp

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